Should You Listen to Billionaires to Buy Moderna Stock in 2026?

TradingKey - Moderna (MRNA) is a biotechnology company focused on mRNA technology, an innovative approach that teaches cells to make proteins that can help prevent or treat illnesses.

During the pandemic, the company shifted from being a developer that was still in the clinical trial phase to a commercial company, producing a blockbuster COVID-19 vaccine. That one vaccine, COVID-19, skyrocketed its sales from about $60 million in 2020 to $19 billion in 2022. Because of this enormous increase in revenue, the pandemic also provided it with the enormous cash position to fund its various development programs.

As the pandemic began to wane, revenue from COVID-related programs declined to $1.9 billion, and as the pandemic also caused it to spend the cash on new programs, its cash position declined from $10 billion to $5.8 billion.

Today, the company markets a coronavirus vaccine and an RSV vaccine and is attempting to also sell a flu vaccine. As for the company's programs focusing on oncology and rare diseases, those are still in the development stage and are viewed as a longer-term investment.

The company's goal is to transform a windfall from a single product to a diversified business. The goal is to provide an ongoing revenue stream from respiratory vaccines so that the company can then sell the more innovative products.

How Moderna Stock Performed in 2025

Moderna stock had a relatively rough ride over the past few years as COVID sales normalized and investors waited for the next growth engine. The shares plummeted more than 70% from their highs over that time span, and 2025 was essentially a wait-and-see year. The company’s leadership trimmed the fat and focused the company’s efforts on projects with more clear paths to approval, and advanced late-stage assets. The RSV debut was not a standalone breakout growth tale, and investors were seeking additional proof the commercial foundation could extend outside COVID.

Even at that, sentiment was starting to change as pipeline milestones approached. Moderna stock was already up nearly 50% in January going into early 2026 and has risen over 30% in a recent 1-month period, indicating that the market is starting to factor in a plausible path to breathing vaccine stabilization and potential flu and oncology catalysts.

2025 was the prelude; as such, the early 2026 rally was primarily a function of its growing anticipation of adjudications/data.

Why Billionaires Are Looking at Moderna in 2026

Following sharp declines, billionaire investors usually seek out asymmetric risk/reward opportunities—which Moderna fits. Philippe Laffont, Coatue Management technology bull, sold a hot AI stock and bought a small stake in Moderna in Q4, according to 13F filings.

It's quite a small stake in his overall portfolio, and this highlights two things: he sees a new growth option that is worth keeping an eye on, and he is sizing it against the still-existing uncertainty.

Billionaires have advantages—armies of researchers, access to management, and the discipline to wait for multi-year results—but their moves are not mandates.

They do highlight, however, that patient capital believes the risk/reward has changed. In the case of Moderna, that change is likely attributable to three things.

First, the company possesses a solid commercial foundation in respiratory vaccines and a realistic plan to introduce a flu vaccine, which provides a base to support research and development (R&D) efforts. Second, the late-stage oncology programs, which include a melanoma therapy that is a partner with Merck, could provide non-respiratory revenue streams if the proof-of-concept studies are successful. Third, the valuation has taken a significant reduction from its peak level, thus positive data and approvals could produce significant returns against an already partially reflected price risk. There is no guarantee of success in any of these, but it explains why an investor with a pulse on the latest technologies would begin to establish exposure in 2026.

Key Risks of MRNA Stock in 2026

The greatest short-term uncertainty is regulatory and commercial execution. The FDA could request more details on the flu program, delaying revenue and resulting in a one-time negative in sentiment. Once the scale-up is completed and the vaccine is approved for use, competing products and hesitant payers may act as barriers to adoption if the vaccine does not provide clear benefits in terms of efficacy or safety. For RSV and COVID, Moderna also competes with established players and the uncertainties of seasonal demand make it difficult for the company to forecast and manage inventory.

Developing a respiratory vaccine is just part of a broader pipeline that includes oncology programs with customized therapies. Although such treatments look promising, they may take longer and cost more to develop than initially anticipated.

As for the finances, Moderna continues to have a solid cash reserve in the billions of dollars, but if the investments keep coming with zero returns, that could mean a burn of resources and increase in the risk of having to raise more money down the road. Achieving such milestones as positive cash flow by 2028 will depend on timely approvals, consistent market adoption, and successful execution.

Finally, there is platform risk: while using mRNA beyond infectious diseases is possible, it has yet to be proven at commercial scale, and investors should expect hurdles and setbacks as programs mature.

Track Billionaires to Invest in Moderna or Do Your Own Research?

Following billionaire investors has its uses, but it’s something that should be used as a complement to your own work, not as a substitute for it. 13F filings are a rear-view glance and don’t capture everything about context like hedges, private holdings, or position sizing across strategies. More importantly, you and the billionaires have different time horizons and risk appetites. If you buy MRNA stock in 2026 because a well-known investor did, you still need conviction to hold through volatility while waiting for approvals and data that could take quarters, not weeks.

A useful rule of thumb is to think of billionaire interest as a prompt to re-underwrite the story. Question: Can Moderna’s respiratory franchise stabilize and grow with flu, can the oncology pipeline provide a 2nd growth leg in a few years, and is the current valuation adequately discounting clinical/regulatory/commercial risk?

If your answer is yes to all or at least most of those questions, and your horizon is multi-year, then a small, risk-managed position may be in order. If you are an investor who wants near-term earnings visibility or if you are a person with low risk/clinical risk tolerance, then you might want to wait for the next approved product or for clearer signs of progress toward break-even.