3 of My Top 4 AI Stock Picks for 2025 Rose At Least 38%. Are They Still Best Buys for 2026?

If you made my 2025 picks for top artificial intelligence (AI) stocks your picks as well, you're likely a happy investor. For my top four, I chose:

1. Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA)
2. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE: TSM)
3. Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL)
4. Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META)

All of these stocks rose in 2025, but three of them absolutely dominated, rising by a minimum of 38%.

Data by YCharts.

That's a great run for 2025, but are any of them still buys for 2026 after a strong year?

Image source: Getty Images.

AI tailwinds are still prevailing

There is a significant difference between some of these AI picks. Nvidia and TSMC are hardware plays on the AI revolution, while Alphabet and Meta Platforms are focused more on applications (but have some hardware plays too). I think all four have a shot at a strong 2026, but the hardware players are in better shape.

Demand for AI computing hardware is insatiable, and Nvidia and TSMC benefit as a result. TSMC believes its growth rate will approach 30% in 2026, mostly coming from strong AI chip demand. That demand is being driven by companies like Nvidia, which is making graphics processing units (GPUs) to power AI workloads. Nvidia has not yet released its outlook for the coming fiscal year, but Wall Street analysts believe that its revenue will grow about 50%.

That's clearly a great sign for both companies, and I think each can deliver excellent returns in 2026, although maybe not to the same degree as 2025. Instead of 54% (TSMC) or 39% returns (Nvidia), I think gains in the high-20% range are possible, which is still great growth for 2026.

Investors want to see a return on investment for AI spending

It's no secret that hyperscalers like Meta Platforms and Alphabet are spending a ton of money on AI data centers. Investors are going to want to see a return on investment, and this could weigh on the performance of both stocks.

If they can show continued progress toward developing their various generative AI capabilities, I think the market will be receptive and send their stocks higher in 2026. But if they see nothing, it could harm each stock.

Alphabet has emerged as a leader in this space and is starting to become the default generative AI model for many applications. I think Alphabet is in great shape and poised to post solid returns in 2026, although they won't be nearly as good as 2025's.

Meta is in a bit rougher shape, as most of its investments haven't yielded anything of substance yet. That could shift in 2026, and I think its performance is entirely dependent on how well its AI advancements are received.

Meta and Alphabet are less sure bets than TSMC and Nvidia, but each could deliver excellent returns in 2026, as AI tailwinds are quite strong.

Keithen Drury has positions in Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Nvidia, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Nvidia, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.