Reuters Poll shows Fed expected to keep rates unchanged at January meeting

A Reuters poll published on Wednesday showed unanimous expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep its policy rate unchanged at its January meeting.

All 100 economists surveyed expect the Fed to hold the federal funds rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range at the January 27-28 meeting. 58% of respondents forecast no rate changes during the first quarter, compared with December’s poll, when at least one cut by March was anticipated.

According to the survey, strong growth expectations and inflation still above the Fed’s 2% target are seen as limiting the scope for near-term rate cuts, though most economists continue to expect at least two reductions later this year.

Beyond the first quarter, however, the survey revealed no firm consensus. While uncertainty remains high, a slight majority of economists — 55 out of 100 — expect rate cuts to resume in June or later, once Jerome Powell’s tenure as Fed Chair ends in May.

The poll also showed a modest upgrade to the US growth outlook, which may be reinforcing expectations that the Fed can afford to stay patient. Economists now see the US economy expanding 2.3% in 2026 and 2.0% in 2027, following an estimated 2.2% rise in 2025. Those forecasts are slightly stronger than in December’s poll, when respondents projected growth of 2.0%, 1.9%, and 2.0%, respectively.

Market Reaction

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 98.48, near two-week lows, extending losses for a third straight day.