Where Will Archer Aviation (ACHR) Stock Be in 1 Year?

Archer Aviation (NYSE: ACHR), a developer of electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, went public through a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) in September 2021. Its stock started trading at $9.90 per share, but now trades at about $8.

Like many other SPAC-backed companies, Archer overpromised and underdelivered. In a pre-merger presentation, it claimed it could produce ten Midnight eVTOLs in 2024, 250 eVTOLs in 2025, 500 eVTOLs in 2026, and 650 eVTOLs in 2027. As it scaled up its business, it predicted its revenue would soar from $42 million in 2024 to $3.4 billion in 2027.

Image source: Archer Aviation.

Yet in 2024, Archer delivered only a single test aircraft to the U.S. Air Force, generated no meaningful revenue, and incurred a net loss of $537 million. As of last August, the company had only manufactured two commercial eVTOLs and had six eVTOLs in its production line. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has not yet cleared its commercial flights in the U.S.

All of those issues seem to make Archer a risky investment in this wobbly market. However, could its stock stabilize and head higher over the next 12 months as new catalysts emerge?

What are Archer's plans for the future?

Archer's Midnight eVTOL carries a single pilot and four passengers, travels up to 100 miles without recharging, and flies at a maximum speed of 150 miles per hour. It expects these drone-like aircraft to replace traditional helicopters, since they're more environmentally friendly and easier to land in dense urban areas. Several major companies -- including United Airlines, Future Flight Global, Soracle (a joint venture between Japan Airlines and Sumitomo), Ethiopian Airlines, and Abu Dhabi Aviation -- already plan to use Archer's aircraft in their upcoming short-range air taxi services.

As of late 2025, Archer had an indicative backlog of $6 billion for approximately 1,200 aircraft. Therefore, the company still has a path toward generating the billions of dollars in annual revenue it claimed it could achieve before its public debut. Still, it needs to ramp up its production and get its aircraft approved for commercial flights before this can happen.

Archer is relying on its top investor, Stellantis (NYSE: STLA), to serve as its contract manufacturer for mass-producing its eVTOLs. However, that partnership is advancing at a slower-than-expected rate. At the end of 2024, Archer predicted it would eventually produce two aircraft per month by the end of 2025, with a goal of producing 650 aircraft annually by 2030. Archer's most recent production numbers indicate it could miss that ambitious target.

Archer's first commercial flights also need to clear numerous regulatory hurdles. Its first air taxi flights in Abu Dhabi, which were scheduled to launch in late 2025, were deferred to 2026 as the U.A.E. regulators continued to evaluate the safety of its eVTOLs.

In the U.S., it needs to obtain four separate FAA certifications: a maintenance and repair certificate, an air carrier and operator certificate, a type certification (which includes its final airworthiness criteria, compliance, and flight tests), and a production certification. As of this writing, it has only obtained the maintenance and repair certificate and the air carrier and operator certificate. It still needs to clear the compliance and flight tests to receive its type certification, and its production certification remains in progress.

It's unclear when Archer will complete the entire approval process, but some analysts don't expect it to receive its final type certification until 2028. At the same time, it needs to stay ahead of formidable competitors like Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY) -- which has already achieved higher speeds and longer ranges than Archer with its S4 eVTOLs.

Where will Archer's stock be in a year?

Analysts expect Archer to finally generate $32 million in revenue in 2026 as it delivers its first commercial eVTOLs. They expect its revenue to soar to $305 million in 2027 as it ramps up its production with Stellantis, but we should take that optimistic outlook with a grain of salt.

On the bottom line, they expect its net loss to widen to $718 million in 2026 and narrow slightly to $682 million in 2027. Archer still had $1.6 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments at the end of the third quarter of 2025; however, it will likely need to dilute its investors with additional stock offerings and increased stock-based compensation expenses to stay afloat.

With a market capitalization of $6.5 billion, Archer is already valued at 21 times its projected 2027 sales. That high price-to-sales ratio should limit its upside potential over the next year unless it ramps up its production or launches its first commercial flights in Abu Dhabi.

Leo Sun has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Stellantis. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.