What to Watch With IonQ Stock in 2026

Don't let IonQ's (NYSE: IONQ) recent sell-off fool you. The stock remains one of the most intriguing opportunities for patient investors.

More importantly, IonQ is still one of the top up-and-coming players in quantum computing. Sure, the competition is intense in this space. However, IonQ's trapped-ion architecture and development of other technologies that round out its quantum platform differentiate it from the pack.

Investors should keep their eyes on IonQ in the upcoming new year. Here are three key things to watch with the quantum computing stock in 2026.

1. Business development deals

IonQ has been busy closing multiple merger and acquisition deals this year. Probably the most important acquisition for the company was its purchase of Oxford Ionics in September for $1.075 billion. With its technology that enables manufacturing ion traps on standard semiconductor chips, Oxford Ionics was an excellent fit for IonQ.

Another key acquisition closed in October. IonQ bought Vector Atomic in an all-stock transaction. Vector Atomic develops advanced quantum sensors used in positioning, navigation, and timing (PNT) applications.

Look for IonQ to continue pursuing attractive opportunities in 2026. One deal is already on the horizon, assuming it doesn't close before the end of this year. IonQ announced in November that it plans to acquire Skyloom Global, a U.S. company that manufactures Optical Communications Terminals (OCTs) used in satellite laser communications.

IonQ's business development activities next year are likely to extend beyond acquisitions. Partnerships and collaborations are also an essential component of the company's growth strategy.

For example, IonQ is teaming up with AstraZeneca (NASDAQ: AZN) to establish a quantum application development center in Sweden. It's also partnering with Canada's Centre for Commercialization of Regenerative Medicine (CCRM) to use hybrid quantum and artificial intelligence (AI) technologies in the design and manufacturing of advanced therapies.

Business development deals that investors view as positive for IonQ could provide catalysts for the stock next year. However, if the company uses too much of its cash stockpile or takes on a significant amount of debt to fund acquisitions, its stock could suffer.

2. Government initiatives

How vital are contracts with government agencies to IonQ's success? The company established a dedicated unit, IonQ Federal, in September 2025 to focus on securing deals with the U.S. government and the governments of key U.S. allies.

IonQ has lined up significant government contracts in the past. They include over $100 million in deals with the U.S. Air Force Research Lab, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), Oak Ridge National Labs, and the Applied Research Laboratory for Intelligence and Security (ARLIS).

How well IonQ stock fares in 2026 could depend in large part on the execution of its IonQ Federal unit. This new group appears to be in capable hands. Robert Cardillo leads IonQ Federal. A member of IonQ's board of directors since 2024, Cardillo previously served as the Director of the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency and has four decades of intelligence experience.

Image source: Getty Images.

3. Roadmap progress

Investors should also closely monitor IonQ's progress on its quantum computing roadmap. The company plans to deploy systems that support between 100 and 256 (and possibly more) physical qubits in 2026. This development is a critical step for IonQ to achieve its goal of building a quantum computer with 2 million physical qubits by 2030.

There's some reason for optimism that IonQ will be able to move forward at a solid pace next year on its roadmap. In September, the company's Tempo system achieved #AQ 64, a benchmark of a quantum computer's ability to handle complex algorithms with high fidelity. AQ stands for algorithmic qubits, while 64 is short for 2^64 (18 quintillion) – the number of possibilities IonQ's quantum computer can process simultaneously. Ionq met this milestone three months ahead of schedule.

If IonQ makes substantial progress on its quantum computing roadmap next year, investors will likely be more upbeat about the company's prospects of delivering on its complete roadmap by the end of the decade. That would bode well for the stock's performance in 2026.

Keith Speights has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends AstraZeneca Plc and IonQ. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.