2025 Black Friday is coming! Which stocks may see volatility?

On 28 November, North America will welcome Black Friday, the shopping bonanza.

Coming on the day right after Thanksgiving in the United States, Back Friday marks the start of the holiday shopping season. Sales data from this shopping frenzy day reflects investor confidence and consumer trends.

The National Retail Federation (NRF) predicts that holiday season (Nov and Dec) retail sales in 2025 will likely exceed $1 trillion for the very first time, which represents a year-over-year increase of 3.7 to 4.2 percent.

Historic data from the past decade show that the retail sector has generally outperformed the S&P 500 during the weeks before and after Black Friday.

The following retailing companies are expected to be big winners:

Amazon (AMZN)

"In the U.S., Amazon remains the undisputed leader in online retail. Although the e-commerce giant has shifted more toward cloud services, advertising, and other digital businesses, its retail presence is still massive.

Amazon’s Black Friday promotions this year will run for nearly two weeks (November 20 to December 1), covering all product categories. Electronics, toys, and beauty products have historically been the top-selling categories during this period.

In its most recent earnings report, Amazon's fourth-quarter revenue is guided to be between $206 billion and $213 billion, a 10%–13% year-over-year growth.

In terms of stock market performance, Amazon shares are up only 1% year-to-date in 2025, significantly underperforming the S&P 500 and lagging far behind the other Magnificent Seven stocks. This could mean substantial upside potential."

Walmart (WMT)

"Thanks to its omnichannel strategy, massive customer base, and highly competitive pricing, Walmart typically performs strongly during the Black Friday retail battle.

This year, Walmart’s Black Friday promotions run from 14 November to 1 December, divided into three phases of events.

Year-to-date in 2025, Walmart's stock price has risen 13%, outperforming Amazon and roughly in line with the S&P 500.

According to TipRanks data, the current consensus institutional price target for Walmart is $116, implying another 15% upside room."

Shopify (SHOP)

"Shopify is the second-largest e-commerce platform in the U.S. after Amazon. Its stock has surged 36% year-to-date in 2025, showing very strong momentum.

During last year’s Black Friday and Cyber Monday, Shopify-powered stores achieved $11.5 billion in sales, up by 24% from last year and setting a new record. Analysts widely expect Shopify’s gross merchandise volume to hit new highs again during this year’s Black Friday shopping spree.

TipRanks data indicate the current average institutional price target for Shopify at $179, implying more than 22% upside potential from current levels."