Social Security's 2026 COLA Forecast: What Retirees Ages 62 to 80 Should Expect

According to a 2023 study from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, Social Security keeps around 22 million Americans out of poverty, including 16 million adults aged 65 and older.

October is one of the most important months of the year for Social Security beneficiaries, as it's when the upcoming cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) is announced. The COLA is an annual raise that helps benefits keep up with inflation and maintain their buying power as costs increase.

Here's when you can expect the 2026 COLA to be announced and what it might mean for you.

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Everything you need to know about the 2026 COLA

The Social Security Administration calculates the COLA using inflation data from July, August, and September. Originally, the Bureau of Labor Statistics was set to release September's data on Oct. 15, but due to the government shutdown, it's been delayed until Oct. 24.

We won't know the official COLA until then, but some experts already have a good idea of where it might land. Analysts at nonpartisan advocacy group The Senior Citizens League forecast that next year's adjustment will be 2.7%, based on available inflation data. Unless September's figures differ significantly from what's anticipated, the actual COLA will likely be very close to 2.7%.

Exactly how far that bonus will go depends on your benefit amount. According to 2024 data from the Social Security Administration, this is the average benefit among retired workers age 62 to 80, as well as the adjusted benefit after a 2.7% COLA:

Data source: Social Security Administration. COLA = cost-of-living adjustment.

Across all age groups, the average COLA raise will be between $36 and $58 per month, assuming the adjustment is 2.7%. While that extra income can help with rising costs, it may not go as far as some retirees are expecting.

The bad news about the COLA

Earning a monthly boost in income is a good thing for most retirees, but the hidden downside is that a higher COLA also means that inflation has risen over the past year. The COLA is directly tied to inflation rates, so the higher the COLA, the more expensive common goods and services have become.

In theory, the COLA should increase at the same rate as inflation so that benefits maintain their buying power. Historically, though, that hasn't often been the case.

Between 2010 and 2024, for example, the inflation rate outpaced the COLA in 10 out of 15 years, according to a study from The Senior Citizens League. The report also found that in that same time frame, Social Security benefits lost around 20% of their purchasing power as a result of failing to keep up with inflation.

Medicare premiums also throw a wrench into many retirees' plans, as Part B premiums are often deducted from Social Security checks. These premiums are expected to surge from $185 per month in 2025 to $206.50 per month in 2026 -- an increase of $21.50 per month.

With some people expected to receive only an extra $36 per month from the COLA, according to current estimates and average monthly payments, that premium increase will eat up the majority of those retirees' raises. No matter where the 2026 COLA ends up, retirees are likely to get shortchanged in one way or another. But by keeping your expectations in check, it can be a little easier to budget accordingly.

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