Will the U.S. Government Shutdown Set a New Record? Dragging Into November, Thanksgiving at Risk

TradingKey - From October 1 to October 15, the U.S. government shutdown entered its 15th day, with no clear progress toward a resolution between Democrats and Republicans on a temporary funding bill. Growing concerns suggest the impasse could stretch into November, potentially making this the longest government shutdown in U.S. history — and threatening a disrupted Thanksgiving holiday.

As of October 16, data from prediction market Polymarket shows the probability of the shutdown lasting more than 30 days has climbed above 77%, while odds of an early resolution have sharply declined since last week.

U.S. Government Shutdown Duration Bets, Source: Polymarket

After repeated failures in congressional votes and escalating threats from the Trump administration — including plans to permanently lay off federal workers — many now expect the shutdown to last at least a full month.

Since 1977, the U.S. government has shut down 21 times, totaling 162 days. The longest shutdown occurred during Trump’s first term — lasting 35 days and costing an estimated over $10 billion in economic losses.

This means that if Congress fails to pass a spending bill by November 5, the current shutdown will break the record.

Thanksgiving Could Be Spoiled

Some lawmakers now fear the shutdown may not end before Thanksgiving on November 27, which would severely disrupt the holiday for millions of Americans.

National parks, museums, and other public services remain closed, and with hundreds of thousands of federal employees furloughed or facing layoffs, travel and recreation plans could be significantly impacted.

A Possible Turning Point: November 1 Health Insurance Deadline

Veda Partners, a federal policy advisory firm, outlined a potential timeline suggesting early November as the next critical juncture, when mounting pressure may finally force lawmakers back to negotiations.

November 1 is a key date: it marks the start of the open enrollment period for health insurance under the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare). Millions of Americans must re-enroll by this date to avoid steep premium increases.

Analysts believe this deadline could pressure Congress to act, as prolonged dysfunction would directly impact citizens’ access to healthcare.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer warned:

“Every day now, people are getting notices and we're getting close to November 1st when people are going to have to decide: Do they give up health insurance altogether and watch their people, their children, their spouses suffer?”

Layoff Threats Intensify — But Legal Pushback Emerges

Adding to the crisis, Russell Vought, Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), said on Wednesday that over 4,000 federal employees — possibly exceeding 10,000 — could face permanent layoffs due to the shutdown.

However, on the same day, a federal judge in San Francisco issued a temporary restraining order blocking the Trump administration from proceeding with mass firings. 

The court agreed with unions that the administration was exploiting the shutdown to illegally eliminate federal jobs.

Treasury Warns: Real Economic Damage Is Mounting

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated the situation is becoming increasingly severe, with the shutdown now affecting real economic activity and everyday lives.

He warned that the federal government could lose $15 billion in output per day and emphasized that continued paralysis is weakening the credibility and functionality of the U.S. government.