China: Data outlook stays steady – Standard Chartered

Standard Chartered’s Hunter Chan and Shuang Ding expect China to enter Q4 at a steady pace, with October data showing a seasonal slowdown in manufacturing and trade but modest improvement in investment and retail sales. They forecast CPI inflation below 1% year-on-year, a narrower trade surplus, and seasonal weakness in CNY loan growth alongside stronger corporate bond financing.

Seasonal slowdown with steady Q4 pace

"China’s official manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3 in October from 50.1 in September, below market consensus but consistent with seasonal patterns."

"We expect the 2Y CAGR of industrial production (IP) to have moderated to 5.1% after a jump in September."

"Resilient external demand for AI-related products and a favourable base effect likely supported export growth of over 30% y/y."

"We expect fixed asset investment (FAI) to have improved as policy funding continued to be deployed."

"CPI inflation likely remained at 0.9% y/y as steeper food deflation offset higher energy inflation."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)