Canadian Dollar: Upside limited against US Dollar ahead of BoC decision - MUFG
Source Fxstreet
MUFG’s Derek Halpenny sees an 80% implied probability of a BoC hike but doubts Governor Macklem will validate the 100 bps of tightening priced through next September. With weak Canadian labour data and lingering US trade risks, he sees little room for front-end yields to rise further. He expects limited downside in USD/CAD and favors a rebound if the Fed stays hawkish.
BoC pricing and Loonie constraints
"The pricing for today’s BoC meeting indicates an 80% probability of a rate hike which is not quite in done-deal territory and there is scope for a surprise."
"But there is 100bps of hikes priced into the OIS curve out to September next year and hence the question is – will today’s communications be consistent with that extent of hikes currently priced?"
"The Canadian economy lost 68.3k jobs in September after a loss of 41.7k in August."
"So we don’t see much scope for USD/CAD to move lower on the back of a hike today."
"Assuming Fed Chair Warsh does enough to keep markets positioned for three more hikes, a rebound in USD/CAD looks more likely than an extension further lower."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Recommended Articles
The Fed will sit still on October 28 — but 100 of 100 economists now expect a December hikeA Reuters poll run October 16-20 found 94 of 100 economists expecting the Fed to hold at 3.75-4.00% on October 28 — and all 100 expecting a hike in December, against less than half a month earlier. The market is close to the same price, with CME FedWatch at roughly 17% for October and 82.8% for December. With the Fed in blackout since October 17, here are the five dates that decide the rest of the year, what each one is priced for, and the two directions each can take.
A Reuters poll run October 16-20 found 94 of 100 economists expecting the Fed to hold at 3.75-4.00% on October 28 — and all 100 expecting a hike in December, against less than half a month earlier. The market is close to the same price, with CME FedWatch at roughly 17% for October and 82.8% for December. With the Fed in blackout since October 17, here are the five dates that decide the rest of the year, what each one is priced for, and the two directions each can take.
Big Tech's $800 billion AI bill faces its first real test — free cash flow is the judgeAlphabet and Microsoft report after the close on October 28, Amazon on October 29, with hyperscaler AI capex running near $800 billion a year. Meta's negative free cash flow and 9.40% drop on October 22 was the warning; this week's prints decide whether cloud growth and backlog can pay for the buildout. Here are the consensus numbers, the free-cash-flow table and the two-sided test.
Alphabet and Microsoft report after the close on October 28, Amazon on October 29, with hyperscaler AI capex running near $800 billion a year. Meta's negative free cash flow and 9.40% drop on October 22 was the warning; this week's prints decide whether cloud growth and backlog can pay for the buildout. Here are the consensus numbers, the free-cash-flow table and the two-sided test.
Tesla jumps 5% as Barclays puts a $450 target on the SpaceX merger — the chart was already pointing to 431Tesla closed at $391.62 on October 26, up 5.21%, after Barclays upgraded the stock to Overweight and lifted its target to $450 from $370, citing a sharp inflection in Robotaxi miles and a potential SpaceX merger. The move also completed a double bottom at $345.88 and $349.33, with a neckline at $388.56 and a measured target of $431.24. Here is what the upgrade actually says, why the chart and the analyst now point the same way, and what would break the target.
Tesla closed at $391.62 on October 26, up 5.21%, after Barclays upgraded the stock to Overweight and lifted its target to $450 from $370, citing a sharp inflection in Robotaxi miles and a potential SpaceX merger. The move also completed a double bottom at $345.88 and $349.33, with a neckline at $388.56 and a measured target of $431.24. Here is what the upgrade actually says, why the chart and the analyst now point the same way, and what would break the target.
Anthropic files for a $2 trillion IPO — the $80.7 billion loss is the decoy, the $450 billion compute bill is the riskAnthropic publicly filed its S-1 on October 26, revealing $16.29 billion of first-half revenue (+1,304% year over year) and a $80.7 billion net loss — of which $72.4 billion is a non-cash convertible-note charge. The real number is the $450 billion of signed, mostly non-cancelable compute commitments. Here is what the filing says, why NVDA, ARM and MU are the tradeable read-through, and the conditions that decide whether the AI trade passes its first public valuation test.
Anthropic publicly filed its S-1 on October 26, revealing $16.29 billion of first-half revenue (+1,304% year over year) and a $80.7 billion net loss — of which $72.4 billion is a non-cash convertible-note charge. The real number is the $450 billion of signed, mostly non-cancelable compute commitments. Here is what the filing says, why NVDA, ARM and MU are the tradeable read-through, and the conditions that decide whether the AI trade passes its first public valuation test.
Fed October Rate Decision Preview: Rate Hike Pause Has Become Consensus, How Will US Stocks, Dollar, and Gold React?The Federal Reserve will announce its October interest rate decision at 14:00 Eastern Time on October 28, and Fed Chair Warsh will hold a press conference at 14:30. Markets currently wide
The Federal Reserve will announce its October interest rate decision at 14:00 Eastern Time on October 28, and Fed Chair Warsh will hold a press conference at 14:30. Markets currently wide
Related Instrument
