RBA's Hauser: Inflation outlook appears worse than forecast, slightly above expectations
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said on Wednesday that he’s still finalizing forecasts and is uncertain about board decisions. Hauser added that the inflation outlook appears worse than forecast and slightly above expectations.
Key quotes
Still finalising forecasts, uncertain about board decision.
Inflation outlook appears worse than forecast, slightly above expectations.
Companies cite cost pressures as top concern.
Inflation has remained elevated for an extended period.
Inflation expectations must stay anchored to target.
Observed some easing in job data and housing.
Monetary policy effective, but inflation outlook deteriorates.
Must respond to supply shocks to maintain inflation expectations.
Quarterly trimmed mean likely to exceed expectations.
You can't aim for current inflation, but it still matters.
Capacity constraints more intense than anticipated.
September labor report was somewhat weaker than expected.
Unemployment remains low, but labor market is softening.
Market reaction
At the time of writing, AUD/USD is holding higher ground near 0.7009, gaining 0.45% on the day.
RBA FAQs
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Australia. Decisions are made by a board of governors at 11 meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings as required. The RBA’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means an inflation rate of 2-3%, but also “..to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people.” Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will strengthen the Australian Dollar (AUD) and vice versa. Other RBA tools include quantitative easing and tightening.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for currencies since it lowers the value of money in general, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Moderately higher inflation now tends to lead central banks to put up their interest rates, which in turn has the effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in the case of Australia is the Aussie Dollar.
Macroeconomic data gauges the health of an economy and can have an impact on the value of its currency. Investors prefer to invest their capital in economies that are safe and growing rather than precarious and shrinking. Greater capital inflows increase the aggregate demand and value of the domestic currency. Classic indicators, such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can influence AUD. A strong economy may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to put up interest rates, also supporting AUD.
Quantitative Easing (QE) is a tool used in extreme situations when lowering interest rates is not enough to restore the flow of credit in the economy. QE is the process by which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prints Australian Dollars (AUD) for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions, thereby providing them with much-needed liquidity. QE usually results in a weaker AUD.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the RBA stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It would be positive (or bullish) for the Australian Dollar.
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