Fed’s Daly: Both goals are risks now

Mary Daly, President of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of San Francisco, said that a month of data isn’t decisive, adding that inflation is above target right now, balancing risks of calculation at an interview with CNBC on Friday.

Key takeaways:

No one month of data is decisional.

Both goals are risks now.

You need to average the two payrolls reports.

Job numbers not a clear read, but also not a wrong read.

Job market is vulnerable.

Very different from when inflation is below target.

Right now inflation is above target, it's a balance of risks calculation.

Hoped last year's rate cuts would put a floor under job market, but this report has my attention.

With oil price increase, the question is how long will that last.

Can't look through this report, but it's just one month of data.

If break-even is 30K, we are below that, but it's only a couple months of data.

Wages need to be inflation plus productivity growth, which is higher.

This wage growth is not a sign of frothiness.

Worried labor market is weaker than we have seen.

Two-sided risks.

Oil price shock is a real thing, consumers will feel that.

Labor market gives me some concern, but strikes, snow, population benchmarking make report harder to interpret.

Asked if oil price rise would stay Fed's hand on cuts, says it depends on how long disruption lasts.

Need more time to decide.

A little optimistic that AI will help drive productivity, but need to see it.

Another policy alternative is to hold rates steady.

Not in a position to think we should hike.

There is a real issue if we should act immediately on labor market, or wait.

We have to be steady in the boat while we collect more information.

Have not seen evidence economy is running hot.”