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Japan’s Top FX Diplomat Kanda: G7 statement reconfirmed commitment on forex stance put forth by Japan
Source Fxstreet
Japan’s top currency diplomat Masato Kanda said on Thursday that the G7 statement reconfirmed commitment on forex on the back of the stance put forward by Japan.
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Spot gold traded near $4,175 on Monday (+0.23%), with an intraday high of $4,187.71 after last week's $4,073 ~ $4,217 range; COMEX futures briefly topped $4,200. The dollar slipped to 101.76 and 10-year yields eased from their highs, but October Fed hike odds near 52% and BofA's sub-$4,000 call still cap the upside. Here are the drivers, the levels and what would flip the script.
Brent crude traded near $108.06 on Monday (-1.71%), pulling back from last week's $110 high after Washington moved to ease restrictions on Russian oil flows. WTI hovered around $101 before dipping below $99. The retreat is real, but so is the supply-risk premium: Hormuz shipping disruptions, attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure and strikes on Russian refineries remain live. Here are the three numbers, the transmission chain and the levels that matter.
The dollar index closed at 101.99 (+0.20%) on Monday after briefly topping 102.07, while the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.14% and the 2-year hit 4.774% — yet futures price only about a 17% chance of a hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, versus roughly 90% for December. The driver is a global bond selloff, not a Fed repricing: France's 10-year OAT jumped to 4.84% ~ 4.94% and the OAT-Bund spread widened to 140 ~ 146bp. Here are the levels, the cross-asset read-through and what to watch.