BoE: Risk of a sharp market correction has increased
The Bank of England's (BoE) Financial Policy Committee said in its quarterly report that the risk of a sharp market correction has increased, especially if expectations around AI become less optimistic and there is a "sudden or big change in perceptions of Fed independence" that could lead to a sharp repricing of US Dollar assets.
Key takeaways
"Equity valuations appear stretched, especially for tech companies focused on AI."
"Some backward-looking equity valuations are comparable to the peak of dot-com bubble."
"Material risk to UK is posed by global spillovers."
"UK households and businesses remain resilient despite higher cost of living, borrowing costs."
"Counter-cyclical capital buffer held at 2%."
"The UK banking system continues to have capacity to support the UK economy in a downturn."
"Risk managers more confident in stability of UK financial system than in H1."
"Cyber and geopolitical risks seen as most serious."
Market reaction
GBP/USD largely ignores this report and was last seen trading at 1.3410, losing 0.1% on a daily basis.
BoE FAQs
The Bank of England (BoE) decides monetary policy for the United Kingdom. Its primary goal is to achieve ‘price stability’, or a steady inflation rate of 2%. Its tool for achieving this is via the adjustment of base lending rates. The BoE sets the rate at which it lends to commercial banks and banks lend to each other, determining the level of interest rates in the economy overall. This also impacts the value of the Pound Sterling (GBP).
When inflation is above the Bank of England’s target it responds by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is positive for the Pound Sterling because higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls below target, it is a sign economic growth is slowing, and the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit in the hope businesses will borrow to invest in growth-generating projects – a negative for the Pound Sterling.
In extreme situations, the Bank of England can enact a policy called Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the BoE substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. QE is a last resort policy when lowering interest rates will not achieve the necessary result. The process of QE involves the BoE printing money to buy assets – usually government or AAA-rated corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Pound Sterling.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE, enacted when the economy is strengthening and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Bank of England (BoE) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to encourage them to lend; in QT, the BoE stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive for the Pound Sterling.
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