Strong Deliveries Fail to Reverse Slide — Policy Expiry Sends Tesla Stock “Higher Open, Lower Close”

TradingKey - Tesla (TSLA.US) reported global vehicle deliveries of 497,099 units in the third quarter of 2025, up 7.4% year-over-year and significantly exceeding market expectations of around 440,000 — a new quarterly record for the company. However, Tesla’s stock took a rollercoaster ride: shares surged more than 4% in pre-market trading, only to reverse sharply after the open and close down over 5%.

The delivery surge was primarily driven by the impending expiration of the U.S. federal $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit on September 30. As the deadline approached, consumers rushed to place orders, boosting not only Tesla’s sales but also lifting demand for rival automakers such as General Motors and Ford.

In addition, Tesla’s energy business continued its strong expansion, deploying 12.5 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of energy storage in the quarter — an increase of over 80% year-on-year. The company also launched its new integrated energy product, Megablock, its next-generation grid-scale battery system.

Despite these strong figures, the market remains skeptical about the sustainability of the delivery spike. Investors view the surge as a one-time “pulse” of demand pulled forward ahead of the subsidy cutoff. With the tax credit now expired, analysts expect a significant slowdown in Q4 deliveries.

The broader concern is that investors are shifting focus from short-term delivery volatility to Tesla’s long-term growth narrative. Market attention has increasingly turned to still-unproven future ventures — including Robotaxi, the Optimus humanoid robot, and AI infrastructure — which are seen as key drivers of future value creation. Elon Musk has emphasized that these initiatives will be central to the company’s future market valuation.

However, with Tesla’s core auto business facing intensifying competition and aging product lines, reliance on futuristic visions to justify current valuations is becoming riskier.

“We believe our thesis remains intact, and we believe smart investors are looking past near-term delivery volatility toward higher-margin initiatives — like Robotaxi and Optimus,” said Mickey Legg, analyst at Benchmark, in a note to clients.

Tesla is scheduled to release its official Q3 earnings report on October 22, and will hold its annual shareholder meeting this month, where shareholders will vote on a potential $1 trillion performance-based compensation package for Elon Musk — an event expected to draw renewed market scrutiny.