Bitcoin Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator Flashes 1st Bullish Signal Since February – Details

Bitcoin is now facing a critical test as it consolidates around the $103,000 mark, holding gains made during last week’s powerful breakout. After tagging $104,300, the price has remained steady in a narrow range, suggesting a period of accumulation before the next major move. Bulls appear to have the edge, with sentiment leaning toward a continuation of the uptrend. The key level to watch is the $109,000 all-time high, which could be challenged if momentum builds in the coming days.

Insights from CryptoQuant reveal that the Bull Bear Market Cycle indicator—an on-chain metric that has consistently signaled a bear market since February 24, 2024—is now beginning to flash early signs of a potential reversal. This shift could mark the transition into a new bullish phase. Although the current signal remains weak, the upward turn in the short-term moving average is particularly notable.

With macro conditions stabilizing and altcoins starting to catch fire, Bitcoin’s consolidation at these elevated levels may be a precursor to a much larger move toward new highs.

Bitcoin Eyes Continuation As Key Indicator Flashes Early Bullish Signal

Bitcoin is preparing to test uncharted territory after months of heavy selling pressure, negative sentiment, and persistent macro uncertainty. Following a strong rally that pushed the price above $100,000, BTC is now finding resistance near the $104,000 level—a key supply zone that could act as a short-term ceiling. Bulls are firmly in control, but the market remains cautious as this level represents the final major hurdle before a potential breakout toward the $109,000 all-time high.

Breaking above $104,000 would likely trigger significant momentum, pushing prices into price discovery and unleashing a new wave of investor optimism. However, this area could also invite increased profit-taking and fresh sell-side pressure. Whether Bitcoin can sustain this rally will depend on broader market dynamics and investor conviction at these highs.

According to CryptoQuant, there’s reason to believe the tide is shifting. Since February 24, 2024, the platform’s Bull Bear Market Cycle indicator has consistently signaled bearish conditions.

Yet, in recent days, this signal has started to flip. Although the current bullish coefficient remains weak at 0.029, it marks the first positive reading in weeks. More importantly, the Bull-Bear 30DMA, a short-term trend signal, has begun to turn upward. If it crosses above the longer-term 365DMA, historical data suggests that Bitcoin could enter a parabolic rally phase similar to past bull cycles.

This confluence of price action and on-chain momentum points to a critical juncture. If the structure holds and indicators align, Bitcoin may be on the verge of rewriting history once again.

Price Consolidates After Explosive Rally

Bitcoin is currently consolidating just below the $103,600 resistance level after a powerful rally that pushed the price from below $90,000 to over $103,000 in a matter of days. As shown on the 4-hour chart, BTC has printed a tight bullish flag right below a key supply zone, suggesting continuation potential if momentum holds. The 200-period SMA ($89,946) and EMA ($92,357) are both trending upward, further confirming the strength of the underlying uptrend and offering strong support in case of a pullback.

Volume has slightly decreased during this consolidation phase, which is typical of a bullish structure where buyers pause before attempting a breakout. A sustained close above $103,600 could quickly send Bitcoin toward the all-time high zone around $109,000. However, failure to break this resistance could lead to short-term profit-taking and a retest of the $100,000 level as psychological support.

Overall, the price structure remains very constructive, and the recent clean break above the previous range between $92K–$98K adds weight to the bullish thesis. Bulls are in control for now, but the next few sessions will determine whether this momentum leads to price discovery or a short-term cool-down.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView