FOMC Meeting Approaches! Bitcoin Strongly Rebounds, Will the $100,000 Barrier Be Broken Soon?

TradingKey - Bitcoin surged nearly 3% today. Can it keep rising and surpass $100,000? The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision is a key catalyst.

On Wednesday, May 7, Bitcoin(BTC) jumped almost 3%, reaching a high of $97,732. It is close to the May 2 high of $98,000. Since April 23, Bitcoin has shown an "ascending triangle" pattern, a typical bullish signal that could break upward at any time.

Bitcoin price trend chart, source: TradingView.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet at 2 AM Thursday to vote on interest rates. This could drive Bitcoin's breakout. LMAX Group market strategist Joel Kruger said the market is waiting for the FOMC decision as a key catalyst.

K33 Research Director Vetle Lunde noted that due to Bitcoin's recent low volatility, significant price swings may occur after the FOMC meeting. He also mentioned that the current negative perpetual contract funding rate might present a buying opportunity for investors.

It's important to note that the chance of a rate cut by the Fed is very low. According to CME data, the market sees only a 1.7% chance of a 25 basis point cut, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 98.3%. If that happens, the likelihood of Bitcoin breaking $100,000 is small. Even if it breaks that level, it may struggle to hold. However, if the Fed cuts rates more than expected, Bitcoin could strengthen further.

Market expectations for Fed interest rate decisions, source: CME.