Bitcoin, XRP, SOL slump as market awaits Fed’s rate decision

The digital assets market kicked off the week by printing “not so much big” red indexes all over around. Bitcoin (BTC) dropped almost 2% in 24 hours dragging major altcoins down with it. XRP, Solana (SOL), Cardano (ADA), and Dogecoin (DOGE) fell as much as 5% before retracing back to normal levels. But this seems just like a speed bump ahead of something bigger.

The global financial markets are heading into the most crucial week of the month as the Federal Reserve, inflation data, and Nvidia all take center stage. Wall Street still expects the Fed to cut rates in June with 3 total cuts by year-end. However, traders are starting to doubt that a third cut will happen in December as inflation worries rise.

Will the Fed hold?

The market has been stuck in a post-sell-off lull since last week’s tariff chaos. Traders are worrying that Trump’s trade policies could nudge the US toward a recession. This is keeping crypto correlated with equities while consumer sentiment is crumbling.

The market is already torn between two conflicting signals. Slower growth should push the Fed to cut, but the rising inflation might force them to hold.

As per the schedule, Monday will see the rollout of February retail sales data which will be followed by February Housing Stats data set to release on Tuesday.  After January’s sharp decline in consumer spending, investors will be watching closely for any signs of a weakening economy.

Key Events This Week:

1. February Retail Sales data – Monday

2. February Housing Starts data – Tuesday

3. Fed Interest Rate Decision/Statement – Wednesday

4. Initial Jobless Claims data – Thursday

5. Philly Fed Manufacturing data – Thursday

6. February Existing Home Sales…

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 16, 2025

On Wednesday, all eyes will be on the Fed’s decision. Rates are expected to stay unchanged at 4.25%-4.5%. Meanwhile, the fresh economic projections and Powell’s press conference could send shockwaves through the market. Polymarket users predict that there is a 99% chance that the Fed will not make any rate cut changes on March 20.

At the same time, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is about to take the stage at GTC, with AI chip demand at an all-time high. The hype could reach another level if Nvidia drops major announcements. It’s expected that AI stocks might go wild from here.

Bitcoin ETFs holding strong

The crypto market is eagerly waiting to react over the incoming week full of economic data. The cumulative digital assets market cap dipped marginally over the past 24 hours to stand at $2.73 trillion. Bitcoin price is down by 15% in the past 30 days. BTC is holding the $83k level quite well. Despite the turbulence, the “buy the dip” crowd is still lurking.

Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and outflows number shows how investors are treating this heat. From January 1 to February 6, US BTC ETFs grabbed a massive 56,802 BTC, peaking at 1.177 million BTC. However, by March 14, more than 55,300 BTC worth $4.58 billion have vanished from vaults.

As of now, Bitcoin ETFs are holding strong at $93.25 billion of BTC which represents 5.6% of the total BTC market cap. Blackrock’s IBIT is leading the pack with $39.24 billion and 568,559 BTC, followed by Fidelity’s FBTC with $11.25 billion and 194,269 BTC.

The biggest altcoin, Ethereum is still struggling to catch the rhythm of traders as its price dropped by 10% in the last 7 days. On the other hand, XRP recorded a surge of 7% in the same period.

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