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Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: $70,000 mark on sight as bulls remain strong

Source Fxstreet

Bitcoin is poised for a third consecutive week of gains, breaking above its range upper limit of $64,700.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $612.60 million in inflows until Thursday, indicating a rise in institutional demand.
Investors should be cautious about the activity in dormant wallets and Mt. Gox-related addresses.

Bitcoin (BTC) has risen around 3% so far this week, breaking above its range upper limit of $64,700. This gain was supported by increased institutional demand for ETFs, which recorded inflows of more than $612 million this week. While some analysts suggest that the macroeconomic backdrop could bolster risk assets like Bitcoin, others point to an ongoing consolidation. From a technical point of view, bulls seem to be having the upper hand, looking at the next critical resistance around $70,000.

Bitcoin sees rise in institutional demand

Institutional flows supported Bitcoin’s price this week. According to Coinglass data, US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced four straight days of inflows until Thursday totaling $612.60 million. The total Bitcoin reserves held by the 11 US spot Bitcoin ETFs rose from $50.53 billion to $51.15 billion, the highest level since the end of July.

Bitcoin Spot ETF Net Inflow chart

Bitcoin ETF AUM chart

Global macro to support Bitcoin

QCP Capital’s report this week highlights a series of macroeconomic developments that could be more bullish for risk assets, including crypto.

According to the report, “The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) introduced several policies aimed at kickstarting their sputtering housing market and anemic equity market. It has apparently worked (for now) as Chinese A50 futures closed 8% higher, with Chinese and Hong Kong indices following suit.”

The report also highlights the widened yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year US Treasury notes over the past month, which moved 40bps higher and is now trading at 21bps. A widening spread generally suggests optimism about economic growth, which supports risk assets in the medium to long term.

Additionally, on the US political front, Kamala Harris spoke positively about AI and digital assets at her fundraiser. Following her speech, rallies in AI-related coins were observed. The SEC approving options trading on IBIT (BlackRock’s Spot BTC ETF) also shows the growing acceptance and demand for digital assets as an asset class.

Active dormant wallet and Mt.Gox wallet activity raise concerns

Moves in dormant wallets and also in those related to the defunct crypto exchange Mt.Gox have raised some concerns among the crypto community.

According to data from Arkham’s intelligence, on Wednesday, Mt. Gox emptied four of their wallets after receiving $370,000 in BTC funds from the Kraken exchange. This move could be part of the repayments to the creditors coming soon. If these repayments proceed to the creditors, fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) could spark among the traders, as these creditors’ are more likely to transfer their BTC into centralized exchanges to sell. Investors must be cautious about such activity. Mt.Gox wallet currently holds 44,899 BTC worth $2.85 billion.

The data also shows that a 13-year-old whale wallet, which had remained inactive since mid-2011, transferred 20 BTC valued at $1.27 million to the Bitstamp exchange on Tuesday, marking its first movement since the coins were initially received. During the same period, another whale wallet holding $77 million worth of BTC also move five BTC to Kraken. This wallet still holds 1,215 BTC worth $77 million and has been mining since 2009, one month after the Bitcoin launch. This whale woke up around three weeks ago and has moved 10 Bitcoins to Kraken in three separate transactions.

The third early Bitcoin whale, which mined Bitcoin around the same time, was active last week after 15 years of dormancy to move $16 million worth of BTC.

Investors must be cautious about such activity. The movement of BTC by early dormant wallets could also create FUD, as the wallets generally move BTC into centralized exchanges to sell their holdings.

ANOTHER ANCIENT BITCOIN WHALE MOVES $3M BTC

A 13 year old whale with $3.17M BTC from mid-2011 woke up today.

This wallet has not made a single move since receiving the coins 13 years ago.

They have just transferred 20 BTC ($1.27M) to Bitstamp. https://t.co/hQe43GgYtm pic.twitter.com/HnvbZbgDHK
— Arkham (@ArkhamIntel) September 24, 2024

On-chain metrics signal consolidation

Glassnode’s weekly report published on Friday explains how the current crypto market structure is very similar to the 2019-2020 period, when the market experienced an extended consolidation range after a strong rally in the second quarter of 2019.

The report measures the z-score of two gradients (155-day price gradient against the realized price). The chart below explains that negative values can be interpreted as periods of relatively weak demand, resulting in a sustained price contraction.

Bitcoin 155-day Market & Realized Delta Gradient chart

The report further explains that capital inflow into the Bitcoin network slowed down after the market reached the March all-time high (ATH), resulting in diminishing price momentum. The chart below compares the smoothed 155-day price gradient (black) against the realized price (orange).

The market gradient has fallen into negative values over recent weeks, while the realized price gradient is positive but trending lower. This indicates that the downside in the spot price was more aggressive than the intensity of capital outflows, suggesting consolidation in the Bitcoin price.

Bitcoin 155-day Market & Realized Delta Gradient chart

BTC on the road to $70,000

Bitcoin price broke and closed above its consolidation zone between $62,000 and $64,700 on Thursday, closing above $65,000. As of Friday, it is trading slightly higher, around $64,900, encountering resistance at the daily level of $65,379.

If BTC breaks and closes above its daily resistance level at $65,379, it could rally 7% from the breakout point to retest its July 29 high of $70,079.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart has declined slightly but remains close to 65, well above the neutral level. For Bitcoin to continue its rally, the RSI must rise above its current trading level. However, traders should be cautious if it exceeds the overbought level at 70.

BTC/USDT daily chart

On the other hand, if BTC breaks and closes below the consolidation zone around $62,000, it could extend the decline by 7% to retest its September 17 low of $57,610.

Bitcoin, altcoins, stablecoins FAQs

What is Bitcoin?

Bitcoin is the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, a virtual currency designed to serve as money. This form of payment cannot be controlled by any one person, group, or entity, which eliminates the need for third-party participation during financial transactions.

What are altcoins?

Altcoins are any cryptocurrency apart from Bitcoin, but some also regard Ethereum as a non-altcoin because it is from these two cryptocurrencies that forking happens. If this is true, then Litecoin is the first altcoin, forked from the Bitcoin protocol and, therefore, an “improved” version of it.

What are stablecoins?

Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies designed to have a stable price, with their value backed by a reserve of the asset it represents. To achieve this, the value of any one stablecoin is pegged to a commodity or financial instrument, such as the US Dollar (USD), with its supply regulated by an algorithm or demand. The main goal of stablecoins is to provide an on/off-ramp for investors willing to trade and invest in cryptocurrencies. Stablecoins also allow investors to store value since cryptocurrencies, in general, are subject to volatility.

What is Bitcoin Dominance?

Bitcoin dominance is the ratio of Bitcoin's market capitalization to the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies combined. It provides a clear picture of Bitcoin’s interest among investors. A high BTC dominance typically happens before and during a bull run, in which investors resort to investing in relatively stable and high market capitalization cryptocurrency like Bitcoin. A drop in BTC dominance usually means that investors are moving their capital and/or profits to altcoins in a quest for higher returns, which usually triggers an explosion of altcoin rallies.

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Bitcoin Slides 5% as Sellers Lean In — Can BTC Reclaim $88,000?Bitcoin has dropped back below $88,000 after rolling over from $90,500, with price still trading under the 100-hour Simple Moving Average. The sell-off found a floor at $85,151, and BTC is now consolidating near that base, but rebounds are facing pressure from a bearish trend line around $89,000. Bulls need to retake $88,000–$89,000 to ease downside risk; failure to do so keeps $85,500–$85,000 and then $83,500 in play, with $80,000 as the deeper “line in the sand.” Bitcoin (BTC) is back in damage-control mode after a sharp pullback wiped out recent gains. The price failed to reclaim the $90,000–$90,500 band, rolled over, and slid through $88,500 before briefly dipping under $87,000. Buyers did show up around $85,000, but the rebound so far looks more like stabilization than a clear trend reversal. Bitcoin dips hard, finds a bid near $85,000（h3） BTC’s latest move lower began when it couldn’t build follow-through above $90,000 and $90,500. Once that upside stalled, sellers took control and pushed price down through $88,500. The slide accelerated enough to spike below $87,000, but the market didn’t free-fall. Bulls defended the $85,000 zone, printing a low at $85,151. Since then, Bitcoin has been consolidating below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the drop from the $93,560 swing high to the $85,151 low — a clue that the bounce is still shallow and that sellers haven’t fully backed off yet. Structurally, BTC is still on the back foot: It’s trading below $88,000, and It remains below the 100-hour Simple Moving Average, keeping short-term trend pressure pointed downward. Resistance is layered, and $89,000 is the problem area（h3） If bulls try to turn this into a recovery, they’ll have to climb through multiple ceilings in quick succession. First, BTC faces resistance around $87,150, followed by a more meaningful barrier near $87,500. From there, the market’s attention snaps back to $88,000 — the level BTC just lost and now needs to reclaim. A close back above $88,000 would improve the tone, but it doesn’t solve the bigger issue: there’s a bearish trend line on the hourly BTC/USD chart (Kraken feed) with resistance near $89,000, which also lines up with the next technical hurdle. If BTC can push through $89,000 and hold, the rebound could extend toward $90,000, with follow-through targets at $91,000 and $91,500. But until price clears that $88,000–$89,000 zone, rallies are at risk of being sold rather than chased. If BTC fails to reclaim resistance, the downside path is clear（h3） The near-term bear case is simple: if Bitcoin can’t climb back above the $87,000 area and keep traction, sellers may attempt another leg lower. Support levels line up like this: Immediate support: $85,500 First major support: $85,000 Next support: $83,500 Then $82,500 in the near term Below that, the major “don’t break this” level is still $80,000. If BTC slips under $80,000, the risk of acceleration to the downside increases significantly — not because it’s magic, but because it’s the kind of psychological and structural level that tends to trigger forced de-risking. Indicators: momentum still leans bearish（h3） The intraday indicators aren’t offering much comfort yet: Hourly MACD is losing pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI remains below 50, suggesting sellers still have the upper hand on short timeframes. So while the $85,000 defense held for now, the market hasn’t flipped bullish — it’s just stopped bleeding.

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Beginners

Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: $70,000 mark on sight as bulls remain strong

Bitcoin sees rise in institutional demand

Global macro to support Bitcoin

Active dormant wallet and Mt.Gox wallet activity raise concerns

On-chain metrics signal consolidation

BTC on the road to $70,000

Bitcoin, altcoins, stablecoins FAQs

What is Bitcoin?

What are altcoins?

What are stablecoins?

What is Bitcoin Dominance?

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