Nintendo shares have lost more than 40% over the past year. With Switch 2 sales slowing and holiday shopping approaching, investors are watching whether a new Zelda blockbuster can revive the company’s fortunes.
The latest earnings report offered little reassurance for Nintendo’s US-listed shares (NTDOY). Switch 2 sales plunged 41% year-over-year.
Operating profit fell 16% to ¥73.9 billion, missing analysts’ expectations.
Nintendo has kept its annual target of 16.5 million Switch 2 sales unchanged. However, it sold just 6.49 million consoles during the first six months, leaving another 10 million to sell before March 2027.
Its biggest holiday weapon arrived on November 5: The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time.
The critically acclaimed remake is already attracting attention, including a reported infinite-jump glitch that could interest speedrunners.
More importantly, Nintendo President Shuntaro Furukawa described the game’s launch as a “very strong start.” Citi analysts believe Zelda could drive holiday console purchases.
“Given these growth drivers, we believe the shares will recover following a temporary correction,” the bank wrote.
The biggest concern is profitability.
Nintendo raised Switch 2’s US price to $499.99 in September. Rising memory-chip costs continue to pressure margins, although management says another immediate increase is not planned.
There are encouraging signs. Switch 2 software sales rose 18.8% during the first half, suggesting existing owners are still spending on games.
For investors, three developments will determine whether Nintendo’s recovery gains momentum:
The Christmas quarter will provide the first major test. Strong holiday sales could support Citi’s recovery thesis. Another disappointing quarter would put Nintendo’s ambitious annual forecast under greater scrutiny.