Analysts Think Bitcoin is Less Than $5,000 Away From a Bull Market
Bitcoin whales sold into the two-week rally while US institutions stayed away, leaving the price about $4,900 short on Sunday of the level CryptoQuant treats as proof of a new bull market.
Bitcoin (BTC) trades near $76,808, down 0.2% in 24 hours. CryptoQuant puts that line at $81,700, the average closing price of the past year.
Bitcoin Price Performance. Source: TradingView
Bitcoin Whales Sent Coins to Exchanges as Retail Bought
A CryptoQuant Quicktake put the Exchange Whale Ratio at 0.93, a level the firm flags as an alert. The gauge tracks how much of the coin arriving at exchanges comes from the largest wallets, and exchanges are where coins are sold.
That reading covers one hour, so it marks a moment rather than a trend.
Retail went the other way. The Fear and Greed Index registered 66, well inside greed, and a taker buy/sell ratio of 1.12 showed traders paying up for leveraged bets.
Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index. Source: CryptoQuant
Institutions did not join them. A negative Coinbase Premium meant Bitcoin traded more cheaply on the main US exchange than offshore, a sign American funds were not behind the move.
“With Price Momentum already exhausted at level 20 and the FEI Score locked in a zone of absolute noise (99.53%), the stage is set for a Long Squeeze,” said CryptoQuant analyst GugaOnChain.
A long squeeze forces traders who borrowed to bet on gains to sell, pushing prices down further.
A Supply Wall Stands Between Bitcoin and a Bull Market
Meanwhile, CryptoQuant’s September 11 report places the nearest resistance between $77,100 and $80,200. A second group sold there too. Long-term holders, wallets that held their coins for months, released as much as 539,000 BTC within that band this year.
Bitcoin Trader On-Chain Realized Price Bands. Source: CryptoQuant
That is two separate groups selling into one zone, one over hours and one across 2026.
“The upper band marks where trader profit-taking has historically emerged,” CryptoQuant analyst Moreno said.
BeInCrypto reported in August on CryptoQuant’s bull market condition, a weekly close above $81,700. Bitcoin has approached it this month without delivering one.
Further ceilings follow at $83,600 and $88,700. Should Bitcoin’s price fall back, support sits at $70,000 and again between $62,000 and $65,000, where holders bought roughly 476,000 BTC this year.
The levels are the easy part. The harder question is who buys a breakout when both groups of large holders are selling and US funds sit it out.
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