One Pattern That Predicted the 21% Solana Price Drop Has Returned

Solana (SOL) price is rebuilding the same chart pattern that pulled it down about 21% earlier this year, and it has resurfaced right at $74.

This time, the structure looks weaker and less symmetrical, yet on-chain data carries a warning that the spring version never did. The next few sessions will decide whether buyers can break the sequence.

Solana’s Double Top Returns on Fading Volume

Solana price is tracing a double top. It is a bearish pattern where price hits a similar high twice and stalls, with the dip between the two peaks acting as the neckline. The two peaks formed around July 15 and July 22, with the neckline dip near July 17.

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The setup is building around falling buy volume, which typically supports a bearish read. This is because fewer buyers are defending each push higher. That echoes the spring double top, which formed between mid-March and May 11 on similarly fading volume and led to a drop of about 21%.

From an exploratory view, the neckline sits near $73, and a clean break would project a slide of roughly 7% toward the $67 area. The risk stays alive while Solana’s price action holds below the $79 zone. Below $79, the risk of additional tops remains intact.

The exchange net position change, a metric that tracks tokens moving in and out of exchanges, helps test how closely this repeats the spring move. During that earlier top, the reading ran deeply negative, near 8 million SOL in mid-March before easing to about 5.4 million by May 11.

The current top has formed on far lighter flows, from roughly 0.2 million SOL in mid-July to about 0.9 million by July 22. The much smaller readings suggest weaker distribution pressure this time, which may explain why the pattern looks less symmetrical.

That lighter selling or rather more aggressive buying, however, is only half the story.

Long-Term Holders Break From the Spring Playbook

The HODL Waves metric, which groups SOL supply by how long each coin has stayed unmoved, flips the tone. The one-to-two-year band matters most here because it tracks conviction holders who tend to sit still through volatility.

During the spring double top, that band held roughly flat near 15.9%, a sign long-term holders were not selling into the weakness. This time the reading has slipped from about 15.7% in mid-July to 15.17% by July 28.

The steady decline suggests these holders are trimming exposure as the pattern forms, support the spring version never lost. It appears they are reacting to the setup rather than anticipating it, which leaves the price chart to settle the argument.

Solana Price Levels That Decide the Double Top

The Solana price now sits near $73, just above the pattern base at $72. A daily close below that base would confirm the double top. Moreover, that would project the measured move of about 7% (mentioned earlier) toward $67. That could open the $60 floor if selling extends.

For the bulls, the double-top risk stays intact while SOL trades under $78.92 (the $79 zone from earlier). A daily close above $81 and ideally $84 would invalidate the near-term pattern and reopen the higher range.

Because this pattern is less symmetrical and forms on lighter exchange flows, any breakdown may prove shallower than the spring 21% slide. Still, the slipping long-term-holder support keeps the downside risk live, so the Solana price prediction hinges on one line.

The $72-$73 neckline zone separates a failed double top from a confirmed breakdown toward $67.