Brent Crude Oil Price Could Surge to $100 After Iran’s Red Sea Attack

The Brent crude oil price climbed to a six-week high near $96 on Thursday after Iran-backed Houthi forces struck two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea. The attacks pose a second threat to global supply beyond the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent has gained more than 10% this week after a 17.35% surge last week. The charts show price pressing against the $100 mark, where a key Fibonacci level meets strong psychological resistance.

🇸🇦 Saudi Aramco is rerouting its oil to dodge the Houthis, offering cargoes from Egypt's Mediterranean coast instead of sailing past Yemen…-Aramco is putting extra crude cargoes on offer at Sidi Kerir, its terminal on Egypt's Mediterranean shore, so buyers never have to pass… pic.twitter.com/z1bAbWKPYo

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) July 23, 2026

Red Sea Attacks Open a Second Supply Front

Brent rose 1.8% to $95.70 on Thursday, its fifth consecutive daily gain, according to Trading Economics data. The benchmark has climbed almost 30% over the past month and 38% year over year.

The rally gained pace after Houthi militants hit two Saudi tankers with missiles and drones on Wednesday. These were the first direct tanker strikes in the Red Sea during the current conflict. The group also declared a maritime embargo on Saudi-linked shipping, and three crude carriers bound for Asia reversed course.

The route matters because Bab el-Mandeb handled about 5.4 million barrels of oil per day in the first quarter, per US Energy Information Administration figures. A blockade would force vessels around southern Africa, lifting freight and insurance costs.

Last night, the Houthis struck a Saudi oil tanker in the Red Sea. This was the first Houthi attack since they announced their new naval blockade.THE HOUTHIS CONTROL THE BAB AL-MANDAB STRAIT.pic.twitter.com/EteNMiXSQR

— Steve Hanke (@steve_hanke) July 23, 2026

Meanwhile, US forces struck Iranian targets for a 12th consecutive day. President Donald Trump warned that Washington would hit Iranian infrastructure if Tehran attacked ships in Hormuz.

Iran threatened retaliation against US-linked energy assets, and both sides played down ceasefire prospects.

Supply stress also spread beyond the Middle East. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium halted intake from Kazakhstan after drone attacks near its Black Sea terminal.

In contrast, the lone bearish signal came from the EIA, which reported a surprise 1.4 million barrel build in US crude stocks.

Weekly Chart Shows a Breakout Above the $92 Resistance

The weekly chart favors the bulls. Brent has added 10.76% so far this week, extending the 17.35% advance from the week before. More importantly, price broke above the $92 zone, which had rejected it several times since 2023.

Earlier this month, a sharp correction from the war-driven highs found support at $72. That horizontal level coincided with the upper band of a descending parallel channel. The same channel line capped price through most of 2024 and 2025, so former resistance now acts as support.

The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) is turning bullish but remains in neutral territory just above 50. Therefore, momentum still has room before reaching overbought conditions. As long as Brent holds above $92, that zone is likely to serve as the new support.

Brent Crude Oil Price Prediction Rests on the $100 Test

The daily chart tells a similar story. Brent bounced sharply from $70.14 and quickly reclaimed the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at $89. It then cleared the $92 zone and the 0.5 Fibonacci level at $94.82.

The decisive test now sits at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $100.64. This level coincides with a previous support and resistance region and the psychological $100 mark. Historically, such confluences produce strong reactions on the first approach.

A daily close above $100.64 could open the way to the swing high at $119.50. That would represent a move of roughly 19% from the breakout level. On the downside, $94.82 provides the first support, with the $92 zone below it. A drop back under $92 would invalidate the bullish outlook.

The daily RSI has just crossed into bullish territory and is continuing to rise, with no bearish divergence yet. However, the fundamental driver remains binary.

A broader blockade could push Brent above $100, feeding inflationary pressure and weighing on crypto markets. A lasting truce, in contrast, could unwind the war premium.

Brent either clears the $100.64 barrier and targets $119.50, or stalls at the Fibonacci wall and retests $92.