Solana Price Forecast: SOL risks further decline amid weak institutional, retail demand

• Solana edges lower on Monday as an overhead trendline caps two previous days of recovery.
• SOL ETFs recorded two consecutive weekly inflows of less than $1 million, indicating weak institutional demand.
• Declining Open Interest and funding rate imply a bearish retail bias, despite trading volume being up over 70% in 24 hours.

Solana (SOL) price edges lower on Monday, maintaining a corrective tone from early July. Institutional demand remains muted, with two consecutive weeks of inflows under $1 million, while declining Open Interest and the funding rate point to bearish retail interest, even as trading volume rises by over 70% in 24 hours. 

Institutional, retail signal further downside for Solana

Solana struggles to regain strength despite easing broader market risk-off sentiment. CoinGlass data show a minor contraction in SOL futures Open Interest (OI) over the last 24 hours, to $4.77 billion, despite a 78% increase in trading volume to $5.37 billion. Meanwhile, the funding rate has slipped below zero to 0.0023%, indicating that traders are willing to buy short positions at a premium. 

On the institutional side, the SOL-focused Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) recorded $948,210 in inflows last week, following the previous week’s inflow of $930,430. This points to institutional interest shifting from SOL to other blue-chip crypto assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), with inflows of $75.67 million and $105.44 million last week.

Will Solana price test $70?

Solana holds a mildly bearish near-term bias as price remains below a local resistance trendline on the 4-hour chart. At the time of writing, SOL trades in the red on Monday, under its 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $76.32 and the 200-period EMA at $76.51.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 49 on the 4-hour chart signals neutral momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and signal line hint at modest positive pressure that has yet to overcome structural resistance.

Looking down, the immediate support lies at the S1 Pivot level near $73.50, reinforced by a descending support trendline near $72.80. A slip below this zone could target the S2 Pivot level at $70.62.

On the topside, a decisive close above the downward resistance trendline near $77.27 could confirm further upside for SOL. The R1 and R2 Pivot levels at $79.15 and $81.92 could cap the potential breakout rally.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)