US Traders Fuel 25% of Tracked Offshore Prediction Market Volume

US-based users account for $11 billion to $34 billion in annual trading on offshore prediction markets, according to a new study from Crane & Zeng Consulting commissioned by the Coalition for Prediction Markets.

The estimate arrives as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) works on its framework and Congress weighs participation limits.

American Demand Fuels Offshore Prediction Markets Outside Regulator Reach

The study covers leading offshore venues: Polymarket, Opinion, Predict, Limitless, and Myriad. Its central estimate ties about 25% of tracked offshore volume, or $21.2 billion, to US traders.

Polymarket’s international platform geoblocks US internet addresses. Reaching it from the US requires a virtual private network (VPN), which violates the platform’s terms.

Researchers estimate that roughly 30% of Polymarket’s $55.6 billion in annual volume traces to American users. That share runs from $10.6 billion to $26.7 billion.

“At least 7% of global prediction market trading volume (regulated and offshore) during the TTM (approximately $10.6 billion of an estimated $159 billion combined total) is attributable to US users transacting on offshore venues. This estimate is intended to be conservative, with a plausible estimated range of 7–21% ($10.6B–$34B) of global (regulated and offshore) prediction market activity attributed to US users on offshore platforms,” the report read.

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A Regulated Alternative Already Exists

Polymarket US opened in December 2025 as a platform under CFTC oversight. It operates as a designated contract market (DCM) and a derivatives clearing organization (DCO).

The company removed its US waitlist in May 2026 and now serves more than 40 states. However, state regulators continue to challenge the product. A Nevada court granted a preliminary injunction against Polymarket. Moreover, Minnesota passed a ban set to begin in August 2026.

The report noted that American traders can now legally access prediction markets through CFTC-licensed venues like Kalshi. Yet, large volumes still flow through offshore platforms beyond US oversight.

Despite this, regulated venues have grown faster. Their volume jumped 866% from 2024 to 2025, against 179% offshore. Kalshi’s monthly volume rose roughly 22-fold to $14.81 billion by April 2026, while Polymarket’s climbed about sevenfold to $9.01 billion.

Analysts expect the sector to keep expanding sharply. Bernstein projected in April 2026 that total volume could approach $1 trillion by 2030, an 80% compound annual growth rate. 

It sees industry revenue climbing from $0.4 billion in 2025 to $10.8 billion in 2030. The report argues that tighter rules on regulated venues could push more growth offshore, beyond US regulators’ reach.

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