Will US sanctions waivers force Asia to choose between short-term Iranian oil and long-term energy independence?

The Strait of Hormuz is essentially closed, and oil prices have surged to around $113 per barrel, leaving Asia’s two largest economies searching for solutions but using quite different strategies.

Moscow sounded the alarm Monday as the war in Iran continued to spread. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that tensions in the region keep rising and that the fallout from attacks on Iran is causing serious harm to the global economy.

“These are all very dangerous and negative consequences of the aggression unleashed against Iran,” Peskov said, adding that the consequences for the global economy were “very, very negative.”

The conflict has sent shockwaves through energy markets. Strikes on shipping infrastructure and the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil to $113 a barrel, throwing global trade into disorder.

Caught in the middle are India and China. Both countries depend heavily on Middle Eastern energy, but their responses to the crisis could not look more different.

India goes back to Iran after seven years

For the first time in seven years, India has resumed purchasing gas and oil from Iran since 2019. The action coincides with supply chain disruptions and a substantial increase in energy prices.

The purchases are being conducted in accordance with a US waiver that permits Indian businesses to import Iranian petroleum.

India’s Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas said its domestic refiners are now sourcing supplies from more than 40 countries, including Iran, to cushion the blow from the conflict.

The stakes are high for India. It is the world’s third-largest oil importer, and roughly half of its crude oil and most of its LPG travel through the Strait of Hormuz.

Rather than joining a U.S.-led naval coalition, India chose to talk directly with Iran to secure safe passage for its 17 Indian-flagged ships.

The action comes after a challenging time for New Delhi. Earlier, it had reduced its use of Russian oil in an effort to reach a trade agreement with Washington.

However, India returned to both Russian and Iranian crude as prices increased from $69 per barrel in February 2026 to $113 in March.

According to Reema Bhattacharya, head of Asia research at Verisk Maplecroft, the crisis demonstrated how difficult it has consistently been to rely on the United States as a reliable partner in times of emergency.

China turns to clean energy as its long-term answer

China is responding differently. In the weeks since the war broke out, President Xi Jinping called for faster planning and construction of a new energy system to protect national security.

Rather than scrambling for oil, Xi is pushing for a system that is “greener, more diversified and resilient.”

Speaking through state broadcaster CCTV, Xi said: “The path we took in being the first to develop wind and solar power has now proven to be forward-looking.”

Compared to many of its neighbors, China is better equipped to deal with rising oil prices.

The nation’s oil reserves, which some analysts estimate to be up to 1.4 billion barrels, provide a substantial buffer against the current disruption, but coal continues to be the main source of energy.

Investing in renewable energy over the long term is already paying dividends.

Together, wind, nuclear, solar, and hydropower generated over one-third of China’s electricity in 2025. At least one-third of new cars sold in the nation are now electric.

China is not entirely protected, though.

According to an official report that China Daily quoted, last week’s domestic petrol and diesel prices increased by 695 and 670 yuan per tonne, respectively. Additionally, China started construction on a solar thermal power facility in Tibet on Monday.

The two strategies show that Asian economies are at a fork in the road.

India is utilizing diplomatic ties with both Washington and Tehran to keep petroleum flowing as it manages the problem day by day. With an eye toward the future, China is wagering that the present suffering will strengthen the case for an energy system independent of the Strait of Hormuz.

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