The Strait of Hormuz Isn’t Just an Oil Problem, It’s Now a Food Problem

Beyond oil, the Strait of Hormuz blockade is now rippling through another critical artery of the global economy: fertilizers.

Analysts warn this disruption could spiral into a multi-country food crisis well beyond the energy markets.

The Iran War’s Quiet Domino Effect

Around one-third of the world’s seaborne fertilizer trade moves through the Strait of Hormuz. Countries exposed to instability in the Persian Gulf export nearly half of the global urea and 30% of the ammonia, two nutrients essential for crop growth.

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Since the conflict began on February 28, shipping through the strait has collapsed by more than 95%, according to UNCTAD. The chain reaction is straightforward and severe: no fertilizer → smaller harvests → spiking food prices → basic staples become unaffordable for millions. 

This is not a distant risk. It is already unfolding. Granular urea prices in Egypt, a major global benchmark for nitrogen fertilizers, have jumped to roughly $700 per metric ton from a pre-war range of $400 to $490.

“Urea fertilizer is up 50% since the Strait closed five weeks ago. 30% of the world’s fertilizer passes through Hormuz. The Gulf produces nearly half of global urea and 30% of ammonia. European and African farm markets are already paying for it,” The Hormuz Letter posted.

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) projects global fertilizer prices will average 15% to 20% higher in the first half of 2026 if the disruption persists. FAO Chief Economist Máximo Torero called the blockade one of the most severe shocks to global commodity flows in recent years.

UBS economist Arend Kapteyn projects fertilizer prices will rise 48% year over year, pushing global food prices up 12%. 

Why Timing Makes This Worse

The timing of the disruption is especially critical. In countries like India, fertilizer shortages directly affect planting decisions during the kharif season. Miss this window, and the consequences are locked in for the rest of the year.

“Procurement for the kharif season typically begins in May, ahead of sowing of crops such as rice and cotton in June and July, leaving a narrow window before fertilizer shortages could start to affect the harvest yield,” The Guardian reported.

The crisis is structural, not just logistical. The Hormuz disruption could have food supply consequences lasting well beyond any ceasefire or resolution.

Shanaka Anslem Perera argues that the 2026 crisis mirrors Sri Lanka’s 2022 collapse, but instead of a policy move, it’s driven by supply disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz.

“The kharif planting season runs April through June. Seeds not planted in April do not produce rice in October. Fertiliser not applied at sowing does not improve yields at harvest,” he said. “Sri Lanka’s 2022 default took eleven months from fertiliser ban to sovereign collapse. The Hormuz closure is five weeks old. The kharif window closes in June. The trajectory is the same. The velocity is faster. And the number of countries on the path is not one. It is twelve.”

Thus, what started as a geopolitical disruption in oil markets is also shifting into a multi-layered global crisis. Fertilizers sit at the foundation of modern food production. Any sustained shock to their supply could have delayed but compounding effects.

Unlike oil, which can be rerouted or substituted over time, fertilizer shortages are far less flexible. Agricultural cycles are fixed, and missed inputs result in direct losses of output.

If the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained, the world may be facing not just an energy crunch but the early stages of a synchronized global food shock.

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