Markets expect Putin’s ceasefire calls to go unanswered as Palantir hits 15% weekly gain

Wall Street was put on notice last week when Palantir Technologies’ stock increased 15% as the rest of the market declined.

The U.S. military’s battle with Iran has attracted investors to defense-related technology companies, helping the data analytics company flourish.

About 60% of Palantir’s revenue comes from government clients, and it has been fortifying its ties with the military and intelligence community.

A new element entered the conflict when, on Friday, Russian President Vladimir Putin called Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian to offer his condolences for the death of the nation’s top leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as well as other people.

Putin reiterated Russia’s opposition to the use of force and called for an immediate end to hostilities and the restart of talks.

Analysts point to Moscow’s limited influence despite Putin’s latest drive for diplomacy, which only offers rhetorical support without action.

In the meantime, the protracted battle may result in continued high demand for Palantir’s Maven Smart System and other cutting-edge American defense technologies.

A longer-term geopolitical thesis supported by Palantir’s leadership is also reflected in the company’s growth.

For a long time, CEO Alex Karp has maintained that AI systems and autonomous weapons are crucial in multi-front conflicts involving China, Iran, and Russia.

This perspective suddenly looks prophetic in light of the Iranian escalation and Russia’s ongoing confrontation in Ukraine, where Palantir provides crucial combat intelligence and targeting support to Kyiv.

Despite Putin’s attempts to alleviate tensions around Iran, investor confidence has only grown as a result of this alignment with Western security objectives.

Analysts at Rosenblatt kept their buy rating on the stock and raised their price target from $150 to $200.

Analyst John McPeake argued in a note to investors that the war “regrettably underscores the value of Palantir over just another LLM,” referring to large language models, a knock on rivals like OpenAI and Anthropic.

The Rosenblatt team also said the situation in the Middle East “bodes well” for Palantir’s pipeline of government deals. The company signed a $10 billion contract with the U.S. Army last year, consolidating 75 separate agreements into one 10-year deal.

Palantir also provides AI tools for weapons targeting through its Maven Smart System, which was used in the Iran operation. With the conflict ongoing, defense spending is poised to become bigger, longer-term, more urgent, and less politically contested.

Anthropic ban draws little concern from Wall Street

The government’s decision to deny Anthropic federal contracts was one issue that Wall Street seemed to ignore. Since late 2024, Anthropic and Palantir have collaborated on defense-related initiatives.

When the two sides could not agree on how Anthropic’s AI may be utilized in relation to autonomous weapons and domestic surveillance, the Pentagon issued the prohibition. Six months have been granted to federal agencies to cease utilizing the company’s models.

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei confirmed in a blog post that the company had received official notice of its designation as a supply chain risk and said he has “no choice” but to fight the decision in court.

Amazon, Microsoft, and Google all said they will continue to make Anthropic’s products available to their cloud customers for non-defense purposes.

Analysts at Rosenblatt noted that both xAI and OpenAI have solutions approved for usage in classified government settings via Palantir’s platform, indicating that there are “adequate alternatives” to Anthropic’s Claude models.

Piper Sandler analysts were more circumspect, stating that although Palantir is not committed to any one AI model, the transition will take time.

“While PLTR is model agnostic, onboarding and re-establishing embedded AI functions will take time,” they stated. Nevertheless, they continued to have a $230 price target and a buy rating.

Putin’s caution is being ignored by investors, who are placing bets on prolonged conflicts, choosing companies like Palantir that thrive in conflict-driven government spending over de-escalatory scenarios.

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