Bitwise CIO says future altcoin rallies will be more selective

The period of broad-based “altcoin seasons,” when most cryptocurrencies rally together, may be coming to an end, according to Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan.

Market data from Santiment also shows that investors are turning away from altcoins, with discussions about the assets at their lowest level since early 2024. Conversations about altcoins are simply nowhere near as intense as during the last meme-coin surge, with Bitcoin drawing most of the market’s attention.

In a recent interview, Hougan said the crypto market is moving toward a “non-traditional” altcoin season, where gains are likely to be concentrated among a smaller group of tokens tied to tangible business activity or real-world use cases.

“I think that game is over,” Hougan said, referring to the traditional altcoin season model where rising liquidity lifted nearly every token. Instead, he expects future cycles to reward projects demonstrating genuine adoption, revenue, or infrastructure value, rather than speculative assets driven by hype

The market could begin to lean toward altcoins with real adoption and meaningful applications, he said. Investors might also begin reassessing some tokens, especially those linked to major companies, he added.

Google searches on altcoin fell to 4 this February

Santiment reports that altcoin social dominance fell to 33 in the week ending February 27. In the past, when altcoin chatter was high, the prices of Dogecoin and similar tokens surged, and when chatter died down, it often marked market bottoms.

For instance, last July, when the social buzz around altcoins hit 750, Dogecoin gained about 59% over 30 days, and traders also poured into any token with potential for a pump.

Even Google searches for the altcoin season are currently declining. By late February, mentions of “altcoins” had dropped to 4, well below the 100 it scored in mid-August 2025.

But Santiment believes that low social activity can sometimes point to bullish trends. The company pointed out that periods of low social activity often coincide with the start of a new altcoin rally. It also highlighted that lows could signal buying opportunities. 

Hougan, meanwhile, believes that if there is an altcoin season, it’ll simply be “more differentiated than previous altcoin seasons.” 

Likewise, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes mentioned last December that altcoin seasons won’t necessarily repeat the trends of previous years. He argued that there’s always some part of the market experiencing an altcoin season, noting:“[If you’re] always saying altcoin season isn’t there, [it’s] because you didn’t own what went up.”

At the moment, the Altcoin Season Index has reached about 43, but is still well short of the 75 threshold needed to confirm an actual season.

Many people in crypto forums and Reddit threads are still hesitant to jump into altcoins until Bitcoin starts to push higher. Some traders expect a new altcoin season to only begin when Bitcoin hits new highs and capital flows more broadly. At present, Bitcoin is trading at $70,604.

The Middle East conflict caused investors to turn to crypto, says Hougan

Even with doubts about an altcoin season, crypto interest and use appear to be increasing. The US conflict with Iran just recently demonstrated that crypto and on‑chain platforms can take over global pricing functions whenever conventional markets are closed, Hougan said.

He asserted, “For most of Sunday, on-chain finance was the center of the financial world. It was the first time I remember crypto-enabled markets being ‘the market,’ full stop.”

Hyperliquid, he also argued, saw an increase in volume, particularly in perpetual futures contracts on crypto assets and commodities, including crude oil. Additionally, XAUT, Tether’s tokenized gold, recorded over $300 million in trading volume within 24 hours. According to Hougan, interest in Bitcoin and Ethereum had also picked up, as well as in prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket.

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