Bitcoin Regains $90,000 Even As BTC ETFs Record 2-Month High Outflows

Bitcoin’s price action over the past week has highlighted just how reactive this market has become to shifts in positioning and sentiment. BTC briefly lost the $90,000 handle before catching an early bounce, fueled by elevated volatility and dip-buying from short-term players. The move was fast, noisy, and headline-driven—classic late-cycle behavior.

While price has managed to stabilize for the moment, the broader flow picture remains mixed. Spot Bitcoin ETF participants are still sitting on the sidelines, and that caution could ultimately dictate whether this bounce has legs or fades into another lower high.

Bitcoin Sellers Present A Historical Pattern

On-chain data shows that realized losses are currently concentrated among the three- to six-month holder cohort, with a secondary contribution from holders in the six- to 12-month range. These are typically participants who bought closer to cycle highs, particularly above the $110,000 region, and are now being forced to confront drawdowns as price revisits their cost basis.

This type of loss realization is usually driven by risk reduction rather than fresh bearish conviction. These holders tend to sell into strength during early rebounds, creating overhead supply near key recovery levels. As a result, Bitcoin’s upside attempts often stall before momentum can fully rebuild.

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Historically, spikes in realized losses from these age bands have tended to mark later stages of corrective phases rather than the start of prolonged distribution. In past cycles, Bitcoin has often stabilized and pushed higher once this group finishes capitulating, suggesting the current behavior may be closer to exhaustion than escalation.

Buying Pressure Returns Earlier Than Expected

From a momentum standpoint, conditions have improved faster than many expected. The Money Flow Index has printed a sharp upswing over the past 48 hours, pointing to renewed buying pressure. Because MFI incorporates both price and volume, it’s a solid proxy for real demand during volatile stretches.

The jump in MFI appears tied to easing geopolitical tension, including developments around the Greenland situation. Bitcoin’s reaction highlights how sensitive short-term participants remain to macro headlines. While this influx of buying supports near-term stabilization, it’s worth noting that headline-driven optimism can fade quickly if the macro narrative turns risk-off again.

In other words, momentum has improved, but it remains fragile and reactive rather than structurally bullish.

ETFs Continue to Bleed Capital

Despite BTC’s bounce over the last two sessions, ETF flows continue to paint a bearish picture. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen consistent outflows this week, totaling approximately $1.6 billion across three trading days. Wednesday alone recorded $708 million in redemptions—the largest single-day outflow since November 2025.

This divergence between price and ETF flows is notable. It suggests institutional and longer-horizon participants are not yet buying into the recovery narrative. Instead, they appear to be waiting for clearer macro stabilization before reallocating risk.

As long as ETF flows remain negative, upside momentum is likely to face headwinds. Persistent outflows tend to cap rallies and make it harder for BTC to reclaim and hold key resistance levels.

BTC Price Aims At Recovery

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has been trading within a broadening ascending wedge since mid-November 2025. This pattern typically signals expanding volatility rather than clean trend continuation. Recently, BTC narrowly avoided a full breakdown to the lower trendline as short-term buyers stepped in aggressively.

That response pushed price back above $90,000, with BTC currently hovering near $90,054. A confirmed breakout from this structure would point to a longer-term upside objective north of $98,000, though that scenario remains a stretch for now.

Near term, the focus is on $91,298. A clean reclaim and hold above that level would open the door for a move toward $93,471. However, downside risk remains tied to ETF behavior. Continued outflows could stall price below resistance and drag BTC back under $90,000.

If that happens, the next downside targets sit at $87,210 or potentially a retest of the ascending wedge’s lower boundary. Until flows flip decisively positive, Bitcoin remains in a volatile, range-driven environment where patience is key.