Polymarket puts 34% chance Bitcoin ends October below $100K, >$130K bets under 10%

Polymarket traders are now giving a 34% probability that Bitcoin finishes October under $100,000, while bets on a rally past $130,000 are barely scraping 10%.

This deep split in sentiment comes after a volatile start to what is support to be a bullish month, with Bitcoin struggling to find footing after a steep plunge triggered by escalating trade fears.

The beloved ‘Uptober’ kicked off with strength as buyers rushed into Bitcoin while uncertainty loomed over a possible U.S. government shutdown. But last Friday out of anywhere, everything flipped.

Prices fell hard (from $121,000 down to $104,000) after President Donald Trump last out at China’s Xi Jnping and vowed 100% tariffs on all Chinese goods. That single headline nuked the rally and sent crypto markets spiraling.

Whale shorts $192M as Bitcoin crashes to $104K

Bitcoin’s collapse came just as gold was breaking past $4,300 to hit fresh all-time highs. While the yellow metal surged more than 17% in the last month, Bitcoin has fallen 8%, unable to claw back Friday’s losses. Sean Farrell, head of digital asset strategy at Fundstrat, explained the shift in capital, saying: “Right now, capital is clearly favoring gold due to its momentum and reduced volatility profile.” He added that central banks are acting as structural buyers, giving gold a backstop that Bitcoin currently lacks.

Sean still expects investors to rotate into Bitcoin eventually, but for now, the capital is riding gold’s momentum. On Thursday, Bitcoin was trading near $108,000, but the earlier collapse exposed deeper cracks. In a market note, Ed Yardeni, a longtime Wall Street strategist, broke down the chaos: “The crypto derivatives ecosystem exacerbated Bitcoin’s recent fall,” he wrote. “During the abrupt drop, liquidity dried up, with over $19 billion in liquidations across crypto futures and leveraged positions.”

And the whales were watching. One wallet scooped up nearly $192 million by shorting Bitcoin before the crash. That same wallet made another bearish move late Sunday, adding even more weight on the downside.

Analysts stick to $165K calls as gold passes $4,379

Bulls had reasons to be hopeful at the start of October. Over the past 12 years, Bitcoin has gone up in 10 of them during this month, based on Compass Point Research data. Plus, it had just hit a fresh high above $126,000. Alongside metals, it was part of the so-called “debasement trade”—a play against fiat currencies losing value. But that trade has now flipped, with gold stealing the spotlight.

Despite all that, banks are still holding onto bullish forecasts. JPMorgan expects Bitcoin to reach $165,000 by year-end. Citi projects $133,000 in that same timeframe, and $181,000 by 2026. But on the charts, none of that optimism has shown up yet.

Meanwhile, gold keeps making new all-time highs. The precious metal topped $4,379 yesterday before easing slightly back to $4,350. Year-to-date, gold is up up over 50%, which is more than double Bitcoin’s 20% return in 2025.

This gap made Ed call gold the “new bitcoin,” claiming it’s the better safe haven and predicting that the precious metal will hit $5,000 in 2026, and even $10,000 before the decade ends.

HSBC raised its gold forecasts, now predicting an average price of $3,355 in 2025, and $3,950 for 2026, pointing to strong buying from central banks and growing macro uncertainty.

In any case, the market-moving influence of a worsening trade conflict between China and America makes it harder to declare the sell-off a turning point for crypto or a peak bitcoin moment. If the dispute over critical minerals restrictions leads to a massive escalation in tariffs come Nov. 1, investors — crypto and otherwise — are in for more pain. And bitcoin and its lesser altcoin peers don’t have the corporate earnings to cushion a deteriorating macroeconomic picture.

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