WTI steadies below $102.00 as diplomatic hopes offset Middle East supply risks
- WTI price flatlines near $101.85 in Friday’s early Asian session.
- US Vice President Vance reaches out to Iran, according to WSJ.
- Houthis says they had launched six missile and drone attacks against oil facilities, airports and a military position across Saudi Arabia.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $101.85 during the early Asian trading hours on Friday. WTI price holds steady as diplomacy hopes for peace talks between the United States (US) and Iran offset some Middle East supply concerns.
The Wall Street Journal reported that US Vice President JD Vance on Wednesday reached out to Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Mohsen Rezaei, to revive peace negotiations. Meanwhile, US President Trump said that he approved Vance's outreach, stating that they "need help with medical supplies and various things.”
Traders continue to assess the developments surrounding hopes for peace talks between the US-Iran and concerns over Middle East supply disruptions from an escalating regional conflict.
Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis said on Thursday that three ballistic missile attacks targeted the Ras Tanura refinery and Saudi Aramco facilities in Abqaiq, both in Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province, and the Rabigh refinery on the country's Red Sea coast.
Houthi military spokesman Yahya Sarea also said that two other operations targeted King Khalid International Airport in the Saudi capital Riyadh with missiles, and King Fahd International Airport in Dammam in the Eastern Province with a drone.
“Those reports of a new spate of attacks helped oil recoup some losses later in the session,” said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital.
Oil trades cautious optimism as Middle East risk and energy inflation unsettle central banks
Analysts at Rabobank highlight that “uncertainty about the Middle East conflict continues to linger over markets,” with President Trump keeping “the option of escalation after the midterms on the table.” They note that US officials have reportedly warned several regional allies “to prepare for potential military strikes after the US polls, and the possibility that Iran may retaliate.”
At the same time, Rabobank points to “reports of ongoing diplomatic efforts.” Citing the Wall Street Journal, they observe that Vice President Vance has “reached out to the head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council,” reportedly at Trump’s request “in an attempt to restart diplomatic channels.”
Against this backdrop, Rabobank judges that “oil markets currently seem to be trading the cautiously optimistic side of this binary outcome,” even as “the protracted energy inflation has global central bankers less optimistic.”
Technical Analysis: WTI maintains a constructive outlook above the 100-day SMA
In the daily chart, WTI US Oil extends its bullish bias as price holds well above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 20-day Bollinger Bands middle SMA. The contract is advancing toward the upper Bollinger Band, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 63.84 stays in bullish territory but shy of overbought, suggesting upside momentum remains constructive though vulnerable to bouts of consolidation.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the upper Bollinger Band at $105.55, where fresh supply could emerge if buyers attempt another leg higher. On the downside, initial support is provided by the 20-day Bollinger Bands middle SMA around $96.15, ahead of a broader demand zone defined by the lower Bollinger Band at $86.78 and the 100-day SMA at $85.50, levels that would be expected to cushion deeper corrective pullbacks.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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