AUD/USD: May be able to test 0.6410 – UOB Group

Strong momentum suggests Australian Dollar (AUD) could test 0.6410 vs US Dollar (USD); it is unclear if it can break clearly above this level for now. In the longer run, chance for AUD to break above 0.6410; a break of this significant resistance level could potentially trigger a rapid rise, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. 

Chance for AUD to break above 0.6410

24-HOUR VIEW: "While we expected AUD to 'rise further' yesterday, we indicated that it 'does not seem to have enough momentum to test the major resistance at 0.6385.' We underestimated the upward momentum, as AUD rose to 0.6391. Strong momentum suggests AUD could test 0.6410 today. Due to the deeply overbought conditions, it is unclear whether AUD can break clearly above this level. To maintain the strong momentum, AUD must hold above 0.6350 (minor support is at 0.6365)." 

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We have expected AUD to trade in a range since early last week. In our most recent narrative from last Thursday (12 Mar, spot at 0.6325), we highlighted that 'the slightly firm underlying tone suggests a higher range of 0.6245/0.6385.' Yesterday, AUD rose sharply and reached a high of 0.6391. The breach of 0.6385 is accompanied by strong upward momentum, and there is a chance for AUD to break above 0.6410. The chance of AUD breaking above 0.6410 will remain intact as long as the ‘strong support’ level, currently at 0.6320, is not breached. Note that 0.6410 is a significant resistance, and a clear break above this level could potentially trigger a sharp and rapid rise. The next resistance level above 0.6410 is 0.6450."