EUR/USD could see a moderate uptick this week – ING
Source Fxstreet
EUR/USD was rejected around 1.0800 on Monday. Economists at ING analyze the pair’s outlook.
Growth outlook not that relevant for the ECB
We like the chances of a moderate uptick in the pair this week.
One risk to this view is the ZEW survey published in Germany today. Consensus is aligned for a modest rise in the expectations index and a small decline in the current situation index. The release has a history of moving the market, but there are fewer longer-term implications for ECB rate expectations.
Markets are broadly positioned for a soft patch of economic growth in the Eurozone, and especially in Germany, and we don’t think the ECB will change its narrative meaningfully should the outlook deteriorate a little.
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Recommended Articles
Anthropic files for a $2 trillion IPO — the $80.7 billion loss is the decoy, the $450 billion compute bill is the riskAnthropic publicly filed its S-1 on October 26, revealing $16.29 billion of first-half revenue (+1,304% year over year) and a $80.7 billion net loss — of which $72.4 billion is a non-cash convertible-note charge. The real number is the $450 billion of signed, mostly non-cancelable compute commitments. Here is what the filing says, why NVDA, ARM and MU are the tradeable read-through, and the conditions that decide whether the AI trade passes its first public valuation test.
Anthropic publicly filed its S-1 on October 26, revealing $16.29 billion of first-half revenue (+1,304% year over year) and a $80.7 billion net loss — of which $72.4 billion is a non-cash convertible-note charge. The real number is the $450 billion of signed, mostly non-cancelable compute commitments. Here is what the filing says, why NVDA, ARM and MU are the tradeable read-through, and the conditions that decide whether the AI trade passes its first public valuation test.
Brent's $115 front month sits $4.6 above January — the $14 spread to WTI is the supply-risk premiumDecember Brent trades at $115.29 while January is $110.71, a $4.58 backwardation. The December Brent-WTI spread is $14.2, versus a $3-5 normal. That gap, not the headline, is where the Middle East supply risk is priced. Here is what the curve says, why the December contract's expiry on October 30 will mechanically cut the headline by $4.6, and the 108.81 neckline that decides the next move.
December Brent trades at $115.29 while January is $110.71, a $4.58 backwardation. The December Brent-WTI spread is $14.2, versus a $3-5 normal. That gap, not the headline, is where the Middle East supply risk is priced. Here is what the curve says, why the December contract's expiry on October 30 will mechanically cut the headline by $4.6, and the 108.81 neckline that decides the next move.
The Fed held at 3.75%–4.00% — and two officials voted to hike. December is now 85% pricedThe FOMC held by a 10–2 vote, with Governor Cook and Cleveland Fed President Hammack dissenting for a 25bp hike. Chair Warsh offered no forward guidance and no dot plot, the 2-year yield fell 8bp to 4.70%, and the dollar slipped to 101.84 even as markets moved December hike odds to 85%–87%. Tonight's Q3 GDP and September core PCE are the next referee.
The FOMC held by a 10–2 vote, with Governor Cook and Cleveland Fed President Hammack dissenting for a 25bp hike. Chair Warsh offered no forward guidance and no dot plot, the 2-year yield fell 8bp to 4.70%, and the dollar slipped to 101.84 even as markets moved December hike odds to 85%–87%. Tonight's Q3 GDP and September core PCE are the next referee.
Get the latest gold price analysis, forex gold insights, and XAU/USD analysis for October 30, 2026. Read on for the details.
US Q3 GDP rose 3.4%, above the 3.1% estimate, while September headline PCE hit 3.6% and core held at 3.1%. December hike odds are near 90%; inventories, AI capex and energy explain why.
Related Instrument
