CZK: CNB paints a hawkish picture, but the economy shows otherwise – ING
Source Fxstreet
On Friday the calendar is empty in the region except for the Czech National Bank minutes. Last week, the central bank slowed the pace of cutting from 50bp to 25bp for the first time, ING’s FX strategist Frantisek Taborsky notes.
Economic data continues to surprise to the downside
“The forecast showed only limited scope for rate cuts, well above current market pricing, and the governor would not give any forward guidance on what to expect next. So, the minutes could provide some indication of where the discussion is within the board. However, we can expect the minutes to be more on the hawkish side versus current pricing with 3.60% at the end of this year, implying 90bp of rate cuts.”
“The CZK has been the only currency strengthening over the last week and we still see potential for a continued rally here, especially if the market reprices current dovish expectations. On the other hand, economic data continues to surprise to the downside, which will make the case that the central bank is behind the curve and the market will have reasons to keep some rate cuts priced in, limiting the CZK.”
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Recommended Articles
Get the latest gold price analysis, forex gold insights, and XAU/USD analysis for November 11, 2026. Read on for the details.
Nvidia slid 7.7% after hours while AMD and Broadcom rose — the AI trade changed hands, it didn't breakNvidia closed Wednesday at 173.73, up 2.87%, then fell as much as 8.1% to 159.44 after reports that its board was preparing for a possible leadership change. The same session, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 5.7% with all 30 components higher, CoreWeave jumped 24.7% on 168% revenue growth, and Micron added 11.9%. If AI demand were being repriced, AMD and Broadcom would not be bid. This is a governance discount on one name, and 204.54 — the 200-day average — is the level that settles it.
Nvidia closed Wednesday at 173.73, up 2.87%, then fell as much as 8.1% to 159.44 after reports that its board was preparing for a possible leadership change. The same session, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 5.7% with all 30 components higher, CoreWeave jumped 24.7% on 168% revenue growth, and Micron added 11.9%. If AI demand were being repriced, AMD and Broadcom would not be bid. This is a governance discount on one name, and 204.54 — the 200-day average — is the level that settles it.
US October PPI Preview: Fed Rate Hike Expectations Rise, PPI May Be Key Variable; How Will US Stocks, Dollar, and Gold Move?On Friday (Nov. 13) Eastern Time, the U.S. will release the October Producer Price Index (PPI). Following the October CPI once again exceeding expectations, the market will look to the PP
On Friday (Nov. 13) Eastern Time, the U.S. will release the October Producer Price Index (PPI). Following the October CPI once again exceeding expectations, the market will look to the PP
Gold hit a one-year low while central banks bought 321 tonnes — the sellers were never the ones you thinkSpot gold closed at 3,876 on Thursday, down 2.8% and its lowest close in more than a year, with an intraday low near 3,852. The dollar is at a 19-month high of 103.21 and the 10-year yield is at 5.10%, so the price move is easy to explain. What is harder to explain is who sold: central banks bought 321 tonnes in Q3, the PBoC added for a 24th straight month, ETF holdings are near a record 4,256 tonnes, and roughly 95% of the futures selling came from non-reportable and sovereign-type accounts rather than hedge funds. This piece separates the two books that have to balance.
Spot gold closed at 3,876 on Thursday, down 2.8% and its lowest close in more than a year, with an intraday low near 3,852. The dollar is at a 19-month high of 103.21 and the 10-year yield is at 5.10%, so the price move is easy to explain. What is harder to explain is who sold: central banks bought 321 tonnes in Q3, the PBoC added for a 24th straight month, ETF holdings are near a record 4,256 tonnes, and roughly 95% of the futures selling came from non-reportable and sovereign-type accounts rather than hedge funds. This piece separates the two books that have to balance.
Brent rose 3.3% and US crude stocks built 4.66 million barrels in the same weekBrent January settled at 95.82, up 3.3%, and WTI at 88.74, up 2.55%, after the US signalled it would not pursue a deal with Iran and attacks on Gulf shipping continued. In the same week, EIA data showed US crude inventories rising 4.657 million barrels against expectations of a 1.1 million draw, with gasoline up another 1.799 million. OPEC output also rebounded 1.96 million barrels a day to 27.16 million in October, led by Saudi Arabia at 10.56 million. This piece separates the geopolitical premium from the physical balance and lays out where each side of the trade is anchored.
Brent January settled at 95.82, up 3.3%, and WTI at 88.74, up 2.55%, after the US signalled it would not pursue a deal with Iran and attacks on Gulf shipping continued. In the same week, EIA data showed US crude inventories rising 4.657 million barrels against expectations of a 1.1 million draw, with gasoline up another 1.799 million. OPEC output also rebounded 1.96 million barrels a day to 27.16 million in October, led by Saudi Arabia at 10.56 million. This piece separates the geopolitical premium from the physical balance and lays out where each side of the trade is anchored.
Related Instrument
