New Zealand Dollar holds early June high

• NZD/USD trades in the mid-0.5900s at the time of writing, its strongest level since early June.
• July trade figures showed exports just above imports, but the data barely moved the pair.
• Focus turns to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) meeting next month, where another hike is priced but no longer certain.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is holding near the top of its recent range against the US Dollar (USD), sitting in the mid-0.5900s at the time of writing after touching its best level since early June. The pair is little changed on the day, but the direction of the past two weeks is clear, and the reason is mostly on the United States (US) side.

A soft US retail sales report trimmed bets on a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike next month, pulling the Greenback lower and letting the Kiwi extend its rebound.

New Zealand Exports are expected, at NZ$8.09 billion, leaving only a slim monthly surplus, while the annual balance stayed in deficit near NZ$3.74 billion. The numbers were not the story, and price action confirmed it.

Short-term technical analysis:

On the 4-hour chart, NZD/USD trades at 0.5943, retaining a constructive bullish bias as it holds above both the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.5909 and the 100-period SMA at 0.5878. The pair is pressing into a nearby cluster of overhead supply, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 66 stays in positive territory but shy of overbought, suggesting upside momentum remains firm though increasingly stretched.

On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at 0.5947, ahead of a stronger cap at 0.5955 On the downside, initial support is seen at 0.5938, followed by 0.5935, while deeper pullbacks would look to the 20-period SMA at 0.5909 and the 100-period SMA at 0.5878 to underpin the broader bullish structure.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)