New Zealand Dollar gathers strength above 0.5850 as CPI inflation data bolster RBNZ rate hike bets
- NZD/USD trades in positive territory near 0.5860 in Tuesday’s early European session.
- New Zealand’s Q2 CPI inflation rose to the highest level in two years, bolstering the RBNZ rate hike bets.
- Traders expect the US rates will remain on hold at the upcoming July decision.
The NZD/USD pair gains traction to around 0.5860 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday. Hotter New Zealand inflation data provide some support to the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against the US Dollar (USD). The US ADP Employment report will be published later on Tuesday.
New Zealand’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.5% QoQ in the three months ended June, with the annual inflation rate rising to 4.1% from 3.1% in the previous reading, Statistics New Zealand revealed on Tuesday. It was the highest annual rate since December 2023, and the quarterly increase was the highest since September 2023.
The Kiwi strengthens against the USD following the data as money markets solidified expectations the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will raise rates again. Traders expect a follow-up hike in either October or December and another one in February, according to Bloomberg.
On the US front, signs of cooling US inflation data might lower the possibility of a US rate hike later this year, weighing on the Greenback. Markets continue to anticipate no change to rates at the Fed's next meeting on July 29, with Fed funds futures pricing an implied 84.5% possibility of a hold, compared to a 61.5% chance a month ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
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