Euro stalls as Oil shock keeps the US Dollar in play

• EUR/USD trades at 1.1631, virtually unchanged after peaking at 1.1655.
• JOLTS vacancies jump, easing fears over US labor weakness.
• ECB officials signal timely action as inflation tops forecasts.
• NFP, ISM Services and Beige Book headline this week.

The Euro consolidates within familiar levels on Tuesday, flatlines around 1.1630s as the US Dollar recovers some ground, underpinned by high Oil prices amid halted US-Iran talks, even though US President Donald Trump says this is fake news.

EUR/USD flatlines as oil risks counter AI-fueled risk appetite

Risk appetite is positive, driven by the AI frenzy. However, uncertainty around the US and Iran negotiations, and the resumption of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah, drive ebbs and flows towards the safety of the Greenback

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the US Dollar against six currencies, is flat at 99.17. The US 10-year Treasury note yield is up 1 bps to 4.461%.

Data in the US showed that April’s Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS) job vacancies rose to 7.618 million from 6.866 million, well above the 6.82 million forecast.

Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack noted that the “job data indicates stability” and that the “unemployment rate is near full employment levels.” However, she expressed ongoing concerns about inflation, suggesting that the Fed might need to act “soon” if inflation persists.

In Europe, inflation across the bloc exceeded expectations, driven by high energy and services prices, but the Euro barely blinked. The European Union (EU) Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) in May rose by 3.2% YoY, up from 3%, aligned with forecasts.

Some European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers crossed the wires. ECB’s Rehn said that a June rate move would be an insurance hike, even though he stated that inflation expectations remain anchored. ECB Simkus noted that inflation expectations are similar to four years ago, stressing the importance of reacting in a “timely manner.”

Traders are focusing on Friday's release of May’s Nonfarm Payrolls report, while Wednesday will see market interest in the Fed’s Beige Book and the ISM Services PMI.

In Europe, the docket will feature Flash PMIs, the Producer Price Index (PPI) and speeches by ECB officials.

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

In the daily chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1630, holding a modestly bearish near-term bias as it sits under the clustered triple simple moving average (SMA) at 1.1667. The pair still hovers above an upward support trend line projected from the 1.1592 break area, but soft momentum, with the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 45, hints that bounces may struggle while prices remain capped beneath these overhead averages and descending resistance lines.

On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at the triple SMA near 1.1667, with a more substantial barrier aligning with the higher downward resistance trend line around the 1.1804 break zone. On the downside, initial support emerges from the rising trend line tied to the 1.1592 break level, while a deeper setback would expose the former resistance trend structure that now acts as a broader floor around 1.1219.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)