USD/JPY holds above 153.50 amid wage data – BBH

USD/JPY is consolidating above 153.50, just shy of its recent high near 154.50, BBH FX analysts report.

Japan nominal wages rise in line with forecasts

"Japan’s September cash earnings data was mixed and does not move the dial on Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate expectations. Nominal wages matched consensus at 1.9% y/y vs. 1.3% in August. The less volatile scheduled pay growth for full-time workers unexpectedly eased to a six-month low at 2.2% y/y (consensus: 2.5%) vs. 2.4% in August."

"Overall, Japan wage growth is not a source of significant inflation pressures given annual total factor productivity growth of about 0.7%. However, risk to wages growth is skewed to the upside. One of Japan’s largest labor union groups (UA Zensen) plans to push for a 6% bump in overall wages for regular employees next year after agreeing on a 4.75% gain in 2025."

"BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said last week that he’s closely monitoring the 'initial momentum' of annual wage negotiations before adjusting policy. The swaps market continues to see even odds of a December rate hike, with a full 25bps rate increase priced in over Q1."