Galaxy lowers Bitcoin forecast to $120K due to AI and gold

Galaxy Digital investment firm has revised its forecast for the end-of-year 2025 price target for Bitcoin (BTC) down from $185,000 to $120,000. The firm cited concerns over institutional absorption, leveraged liquidations, and significant distribution by long-term holders.

Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, revealed that Bitcoin has entered its ‘maturity era’, meaning the market is largely dictated by institutional flows, low volatility, and passive ETF investments, and no longer retail speculations. Thorn noted on X that Bitcoin can maintain the $100,000 level, suggesting that the three-year bull market will remain structurally intact, while acknowledging that future gains may slow down. 

Galaxy says institutional traders dictate the current crypto market

Galaxy Digital revised its forecast following the October 10 market crash, which triggered roughly $20 billion in liquidation across the cryptocurrency market. The Bitcoin price experienced a brief drawdown, trading below $105,000, after reaching highs of $121,000. The total liquidations on October 10 marked the largest in cryptocurrency history to date. 

i’m lowering my BTC bullish EOY target to $120k (prev $185k) 👀

just sent this note to clients

whale distribution, non-BTC investments, treasury company malaise, and other factors contributed to BTC headwinds in 25

(long-term future still bullish, of course) 

— Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins) November 5, 2025

According to Galaxy, roughly 470,000 to 400,000 BTC, valued between $50 billion and $43 billion, were offloaded by long-term holders during the recent bearish momentum, creating significant resistance at key price levels. On-chain data indicates a decline in spot demand and ETF outflows, signaling a shift from bullish momentum. For instance, U.S. spot ETFs for BTC and ETH have experienced sustained outflows for five consecutive days, resulting in more than $1 billion being offloaded from the funds.

Bitcoin has shed nearly 20% of its value from its October 26 all-time high of $ 69,000, indicating a potential bearish phase.  Although some analysts believe that a correction of 20% to 25% is within the normal range, citing that past market corrections have exceeded 30%. 

Galaxy noted that capital migration is another factor affecting the current price action, with investors shifting funds towards AI and Gold. Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy, believes that AI infrastructure companies and data centre investment stocks have soared, attracting more capital as Bitcoin loses its speculative appeal. 

Bitcoin faces short-term bearish pressure as ETF outflows rise

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic uncertainties have also triggered a shift of investments towards less-risky assets such as gold, which is traditionally viewed as a hedge against inflation. Thorn noted that in a liquidity-rich environment, attention is finite. He added that the investment focus has favored other high-demand sectors, such as AI, this year over digital assets. 

According to Galaxy Digital, the introduction of Bitcoin spot ETFs hasn’t consistently driven price action, but rather the influence of passive flows by institutional and retail ETF holders. The firm believes these holders have created a new layer of market stability and reduced short-term upside volatility. 

According to CryptoQuant analyst Julio Moreno, BTC may fall to as low as $72,000 in the short term if the bearish momentum persists. He cited concerns over declining spot demand and ETF outflows that have sustained since the October crash. 

So far, Bitcoin has recovered more than 5% to trade around $103,322 after a recent dip earlier this week, which saw it fall below $100,000. ETH has recovered by almost 12% to trade at $3,400 levels after dipping below $3,100 on Tuesday. Yet with ETFs bleeding capital, the market remains vulnerable and uncertain towards further retracements. 

Despite the short-term bearish momentum, Galaxy maintains confidence that Bitcoin’s long-term fundamentals remain intact. Thorn said that market cycles are the defining features of crypto assets and that the current phase of consolidation does not invalidate Bitcoin’s long-term projections.