AUD/USD jumps near 0.7200 as Japan’s intervention sinks the USD

• AUD/USD surged despite solid US GDP growth and Core PCE data.

• Japan’s FX intervention triggered broad US Dollar weakness across major currencies.

• RBA hike expectations strengthened after Australia’s hotter quarterly CPI print.

The Australian Dollar reclaimed the 0.7200 level on Thursday, surging more than 1% as the Greenback dropped to seven-day lows amid Japanese authorities’ intervention in the FX markets, pushing aside solid US economic data. The AUD/USD trades past 0.7200 after hitting a daily low of 0.7110.

Aussie rallies as RBA hike bets and weak Dollar overpower US data

The Greenback’s fall is driving the financial markets, tumbling 0.91% as depicted by the US Dollar Index (DYX). The DXY, which tracks the US Dollar’s performance against a basket of six currencies, falls toward 98.00 after the USD/JPY collapsed by over 400 pips during Thursday’s Asian-European session, amid a confirmed intervention in the FX space.

Reuters reported, “Japan intervened to prop up the yen against the US Dollar on Thursday, its first official currency action in nearly two years, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.”.

In the meantime, major central banks like the European Central Bank and the Bank of England have finished the central bank bonanza, delivering hawkish holds amid higher energy prices, which are strengthening the case for keeping rates “higher for longer.”

Data from the US showed that the economy grew 2% in Q1 2026, slightly below the 2.3% estimate. Spending on AI and investment in data centers increased at a rate of 17.2%, up from a modest 4.3% in the last quarter of 2025.

At the same time, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core PCE, rose by 3.2% YoY in March as expected, up from 3%, its highest level in almost three years. US initial jobless claims in the week ending April 25 rose by 189K, below estimates of 215K people expected to file for unemployment benefits.

RBA expected to hike in May's meeting

In Australia, the economic docket will feature the Producer Price Index (PPI) for Q1 2026, after the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) released on April 28 rose by over 4.1% in Q1, up from 3.6%.

Money markets are pricing in a 70% chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will raise rates to 4.35% at the May 5 meeting, according to Prime Terminal data.

In the US, the economic calendar will feature the ISM Manufacturing PMI for April, expected to expand to 53, up from March’s unexpected 52.7.

AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

In the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7201, maintaining a constructive bullish bias as it holds above the near-term upward trend-line support around 0.7074 and the cluster of simple moving averages (SMA) centered near 0.7059. The pair has also reclaimed the longer-term downward trend structure, turning the former bearish line from 0.8015–0.6472 into an underlying floor, while a 14-day Relative Strength Index near 61 suggests firm but not yet overextended upside momentum.

On the downside, initial support is now seen at the 0.7201 area as an intraday pivot, followed by the rising trend-line zone near 0.7074 and the 50–200 day SMA band around 0.7059, with the reclaimed descending trend reference at 0.6472 acting as a deeper structural floor if a sharper correction unfolds. On the topside, a sustained push higher would expose the next resistance band defined by the higher ascending trend structures, with the first notable cap emerging near 0.7558 and a more distant barrier aligned with the broader rising trajectory around 0.7858.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)