EUR/USD holds position around 1.0800 as softer US data escalate odds of Fed rate cuts
■ EUR/USD gains ground as US Dollar struggles due to escalated speculation of Fed rate cuts in 2024.
■ The US ISM Services PMI dropped to 48.8 in June, marking its steepest decline since April 2020.
■ The Euro may experience volatility as the second round of the French election approaches this Sunday.
EUR/USD continues its winning streak, trading around 1.0790 during the Asian session on Thursday. This upside is attributed to a decline in the US Dollar (USD) due to the escalated speculations of the Federal Reserve (Fed) reducing interest rates in 2024. US markets will be closed on Thursday in observance of the Independence Day holiday.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the USD against six other major currencies, faces challenges amid lower US Treasury yields. The DXY trades around 105.30 at the time of writing. As of Wednesday’s close, the 2-year and 10-year yields on US Treasury bonds stood at 4.70% and 4.35%, respectively.
On the US data front, US ISM Services PMI fell sharply to 48.8 in June, marking the steepest decline since April 2020. This figure was well below market expectations of 52.5, following a reading of 53.8 in May. The ADP Employment report showed that US private businesses added 150,000 workers to their payrolls in June, the lowest increase in five months. This figure fell short of the expected 160,000 and was below the downwardly revised 157,000 in May.
On the Euro’s side, traders anticipate increased EUR volatility as the second round of the French election runoff approaches on July 7. According to a Harris Interactive poll conducted for Challenges magazine, the RN is projected to fall short of the 289 seats needed to control the 577-seat National Assembly, marking the first survey published after a cross-party anti-RN coalition was formed, as reported by Reuters.
The yield spread between French and German 10-year government bonds has narrowed to approximately 71 basis points, down from a recent peak of 82 basis points at the end of last month. This reduction in the risk premium for French government bonds suggests growing investor confidence that the far-right RN party will not secure a parliamentary majority.
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