Bitcoin Decouples From Gold, But Long-Term Correlation Intact

Data shows the digital gold narrative may be in danger on the short term as Bitcoin has diverged from Gold in its 30-day Correlation.

Bitcoin Is Still Correlated To Gold On A Long-Term Scale

In a new post on X, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has discussed about how the Correlation between Bitcoin and Gold is currently looking on various timeframes. The “Correlation” here refers to a tool from statistics that determines how related two given variables are. In terms of assets, the metric identifies if there is any relationship between their prices.

When the value of the indicator is positive over a given period, it means the price of one asset has reacted to movements in the other by traveling in the same direction. The closer is the metric to 1, the stronger is this relationship.

On the other hand, the metric being under negative suggests the two assets have tended to move in opposite directions. The extreme point, corresponding to the strongest negative correlation, lies at -1.

There’s also one more value that the Correlation can assume: exactly equal to zero. In statistics, when this happens, the two variables are said to be independent from each other. In other words, movements of one have no implications for the other.

Now, here is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows the trend in the Correlation between Bitcoin and Gold on 30-day, 90-day, and 365-day windows:

As displayed in the above graph, the Correlation between Bitcoin and Gold has been negative on 30-day and 90-day timeframes recently, indicating that the two assets have been moving against each other during the last few months.

The relationship is only mild on the 90-day, but the 30-day behavior is pronounced, with the indicator standing at a notable value of -0.53. The negative Correlation has developed between the two as the precious metal has taken off with a rally, while the cryptocurrency has been stuck in consolidation.

Bitcoin is often considered the digital equivalent of Gold in terms of being a “safe haven” asset. Given that BTC has decoupled from the traditional asset, however, the narrative may be in danger.

This only holds on the short-term windows, though. From the chart, it’s visible that the 365-day Correlation between the two continues to stand at a significant positive level of 0.65.

It now remains to be seen whether Bitcoin would only diverge from Gold in the near future, or if the assets will come in line before long, maintaining their long-term relationship.

BTC Price

Bitcoin has been making some recovery recently as its price has climbed to the $114,500 level.