Approval odds of ETFs rise in 2025 even for altcoins
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The odds for more ETF approvals in 2025 are relatively high, even for altcoins. According to Bloomberg’s prediction, the least odds of approval are for an Avalanche ETF at 75%.
More ETFs may be approved in 2025 with relatively high odds, even for altcoins. The lowest odds for an Avalanche ETF are at 75%, while DOGE faces 80% chance of approval, noted Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst for Bloomberg.
Would love to hear directly from Atkins, but all good chance of happening. Here’s our latest odds of approval for all the dif spot ETFs — Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) April 30, 2025.
The odds are for some of the most prominent applications, from entities already experienced in running BTC and ETH funds. The queue for ETF approvals already has 72 applications for even smaller altcoins. Some of those funds may have much lower odds of approval, and are yet to file all the required forms.
The long-awaited ETFs may keep seeing delays in the short term, with the first approvals expected toward the last quarter of 2025. ETFs have taken years for their first approvals, based on the SEC procedure.
Delays are common for ETF approvals, as the SEC delayed their decision on several funds. The delays affected the XRP spot ETF by Franklin Templeton, as well as the DOGE ETF and Ethereum Staking ETFs. In total, five ETF were delayed for further revision and discussion.
Despite attempts to launch ETFs for niche tokens or even memes, most bids are for Solana or XRP-based funds. A total of 19 XRP funds are awaiting approval, with no hard deadline, as most are at a different stage in their applications. Despite the heightened sentiment for XRP, the asset traded in its usual range, at around $2.24 after the latest fund delay.
Niche applications include Polkadot and Hedera Hashgraph (HBAR), though those retain low odds of approval. The biggest shift in ETFs permissions may be the addition of staking, where applicable, for Ethereum and Solana investors.
Polymarket odds expect a slow summer for ETFs
Polymarket estimates match the general odds by Bloomberg’s analysts. The prediction market has relatively low odds for approvals in Q2, but higher odds for the end of 2025. The odds of approval before the end of Q2 are currently falling rapidly after the latest series of SEC delays.
The most active Polymarket pair is for the Solana ETF approval by the end of 2025. The market shows odds of 83%, lower than the 90% proposed by Bloomberg. The market is highly volatile, though with volumes of around $142K at this point.
Other relatively high odds for ETF include Cardano (ADA), Litecoin (LTC), and XRP, with the highest odds of 87%.
The ETF narrative no longer boosts altcoins as it did during the run-up to the Ethereum ETF approvals. Despite this, interest in launching new funds supports a selection of altcoins from older bull markets. The addition of those assets sparks hopes of recovery after years of trading far from peak valuations.
ETF effects on crypto prices remain unpredictable. Both the BTC and ETH launches were followed by months of sluggish price action.
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* The content presented above, whether from a third party or not, is considered as general advice only. This article should not be construed as containing investment advice, investment recommendations, an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments.
