S&P 500 closed at 6,204.95, breaks above 6,200 for the first time ever

The S&P 500 ended Monday at 6,204.95, its highest level ever recorded, after rising 0.52% in a session that wrapped a brutal month of gains.

The Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.47% to close at 20,369.73, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 275.50 points, or 0.63%, settling at 44,094.77.

This happened as traders closed the books on a record-breaking June, with the S&P 500 up nearly 5%, the Nasdaq up over 6%, and the Dow advancing more than 4% for the month. The second quarter didn’t disappoint either—S&P 500 gained more than 10%, Nasdaq soared nearly 18%, and Dow picked up almost 5%.

Canada drops digital tax after Trump ends trade talks

The Monday gains came just days after President Donald Trump announced that the United States was “terminating ALL discussions on Trade with Canada.”

That declaration followed Ottawa’s now-abandoned plan to roll out a digital services tax, which would’ve gone live the same day and impacted major tech names like Google, Meta, and Amazon. Instead, Canada pulled the plug on the tax in what appeared to be an attempt to revive broken trade lines with Washington.

Trump’s 90-day freeze on tariffs is set to expire next week. Investors are watching closely for any news on renewed deals. On Monday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters there are “countries that are negotiating in good faith,” but warned that “if we can’t get across the line because they are being recalcitrant,” tariffs will “spring back” to their April 2 levels. No changes have been confirmed yet.

Trade agreements may come after Trump’s economic legislation is passed. Kevin Hassett, who serves as Director of the National Economic Council, said on CNBC’s Squawk on the Street that deals are expected to follow the approval of the president’s bill, which he described as “one, big, beautiful.”

The bill barely cleared a procedural vote in the Senate over the weekend and now heads to the House, where several Republicans have voiced concerns about revisions in the current draft.

Strategists expect more volatility ahead despite rally

Despite the current gains, some market analysts are cautious about the road ahead. Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at US Bank Wealth Management, sees a path forward for more upside. He pointed out that “inflation is stable, interest rates are range-bound and earnings are trending higher.” He expects the S&P 500 to hit 6,325 by year’s end, less than 2% from Monday’s close, and said the “wall of worry is crumbling as stocks reach all-time highs.”

That optimism isn’t shared across the board. Leslie Falconio, head of taxable fixed income strategy at UBS Financial Services, said the market has been resilient, but that the second half of the year could bring “bouts of volatility and pockets of vulnerability.”

She also said that economic data will be the deciding factor for interest rate movement. Falconio predicted the federal funds rate will fall by 1 percentage point by the end of the first quarter of 2026, but stressed that nothing is guaranteed.

Back in early April, the S&P 500 came close to falling into bear territory as global tariff headlines created uncertainty across markets. That’s changed fast. Now, all three major indexes are hovering at record levels, supported by better-than-expected earnings, strong investor flows, and slightly calmer inflation readings. Whether this rally keeps going depends on Washington’s next moves, and if upcoming economic reports deliver what traders are now betting on.

But for now, the S&P 500 has broken through another ceiling—and traders are betting this isn’t the last one.

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