Economic calendar and Wall Street expectations brings tension to the trading floor

Financial markets are entering yet another tense week, with the U.S. government shutdown countdown, the close of the third quarter, and the release of September’s jobs data all landing at the same time.

All major averages barely moved last week, even after President Donald Trump announced fresh tariffs late Thursday, but investors now face a week loaded with events that carry much heavier risks.

Tuesday is the official end of Q3, a period that saw the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq hit all-time highs. At the same time, Washington is running out of time to avoid a shutdown, with the government set to close on Wednesday afternoon unless a funding deal is struck.

Congress struggles while jobs data hangs in balance

Economists on Wall Street expect 43,000 new non-farm payroll jobs in September and unemployment steady at 4.3%. Oxford Economics predicts a stronger number, saying the economy likely added 85,000 jobs in September, which “should reassure the Federal Reserve that the labor market isn’t deteriorating, allowing the central bank to keep policy on hold at its October meeting,” according to them.

The risk of withheld data has raised concerns at the Fed. Last week, Lisa Cook, a sitting Fed governor, continued her legal fight against the Trump administration’s attempt to remove her from the board over allegations tied to 2021 mortgage fraud.

Her legal team urged the Supreme Court to reject the effort, and she was backed in an amicus brief filed by former Fed chairs Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen.

The shutdown also raises the threat of real job losses. Oxford Economics noted that in a typical shutdown, about 40% of federal workers are furloughed with back pay restored afterward. This time the White House has signaled agencies to prepare for layoffs, not furloughs.

Economic calendar and Wall Street expectations brings tension to the trading floor

The market will also react to a stacked calendar of economic releases. Monday brings Dallas Fed manufacturing activity data.

On Tuesday, we will be awaiting the FHFA house price index for July, the MNI Chicago PMI for September, JOLTS job openings for August, Conference Board consumer confidence for September, and Dallas Fed services activity.

Wednesday features MBA mortgage applications, ADP private payrolls, S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, ISM manufacturing PMI, construction spending for August, and Wards total vehicle sales for September.

Thursday will include Challenger job cuts for September, initial jobless claims for the week ending Sept. 27, factory orders for August, and the final durable goods orders reading.

Friday, if not derailed by the shutdown, will see the nonfarm payrolls report, unemployment rate, average hourly earnings month-on-month and year-on-year, the S&P Global US services PMI final reading, and the ISM services index.

Earnings are thin, with Carnival Corporation, Jefferies, Vail Resorts, and Diginex reporting Monday, Paychex and Lamb Weston reporting Tuesday, and Nike reporting Wednesday, which makes it the most notable corporate release of the week.

Thursday and Friday bring no significant earnings updates, as major banks won’t begin Q3 earnings until mid-October, meaning the market must ride through political and economic turbulence without new corporate anchors.

Despite the uncertainty, the S&P 500 finished Friday’s session above 6,600. Investors have not forgotten the shock of Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcements earlier this year. Losses tied to that moment were wiped out in a month.

Meanwhile, volatility has collapsed since, with the VIX falling from above 50 in April to the mid-teens on Friday. Since July 1, it has traded above 20 only once, as Cryptopolitan just reported. After rebounding in May, the S&P 500 climbed back to record levels in an orderly fashion.

Plus hedge funds use them as well, especially for short-term trading, according to Robert Harlow, associate head of global multi-asset research at T. Rowe. “If you’re a macro hedge fund that isn’t set up to trade all types of option structures or something, you just get in, get out.”

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