Joby Aviation's Next Earnings Report on Aug. 5 Could Send the Stock Plummeting. Here's Why.

Joby Aviation (NYSE:JOBY) is slated to report second-quarter earnings after the bell on Aug. 5, 2026. And, boy oh boy, is the timing tense.

So far in 2026, Joby stock has plummeted about 50%. Investors, while mostly bullish on electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) stocks in 2025, have seemingly lost interest.

Part of that is because Joby’s fundamental challenge hasn’t changed: It still needs FAA type certification before it can scale its eVTOL business. The financial consequence of that delayed commercialization will probably show up again in its second-quarter results, with Wall Street expecting a loss of roughly $0.21 per share.

Anyone who has invested in Joby is probably aware of the company’s cash-burning problems. What could send the stock plummeting after the bell on Aug. 5, however, would be related to FAA type certification progress, or lack thereof.

If Joby’s progress appears stalled -- or its pace appears decelerated -- the money-losing eVTOL start-up could be in for a difficult second-half of 2026.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

Joby cannot afford a vague certification update.

Joby is flying into its second-quarter earnings with a market cap of about $7 billion despite lacking an FAA-certified eVTOL and generating little revenue from its core business.

Announcement-wise, Joby’s second quarter has seemed pretty solid. In late April, Joby flew an eVTOL from JFK airport to heliports in Manhattan in under 10 minutes, completing the first-ever point-to-point eVTOL flight in the Big Apple. In June, Joby and its long-term manufacturing partner, Toyota, (NYSE:TM) announced a formal joint effort called the Joby Toyota Aero Manufacturing Preparation Company (JTAMPC), aimed at scaling production of Joby’s S4 electric taxis.

Finally, in July, Joby finalized a definitive agreement with Virgin Atlantic to bring Joby’s air-taxi services to the United Kingdom. Under the agreement, Virgin Atlantic users will be able to book Joby air taxis through the airline’s mobile app and website, adding another big name to Joby’s commercial partnership list, which includes Delta (NYSE:DAL) and Uber (NYSE:UBER).

This has all been great. But none of it answers the question that matters most for its valuation right now: When will Joby break the regulatory dam holding back its highly anticipated commercial launch? Is the company moving quickly enough through the FAA type certification process, and, if so, when should investors expect eVTOL commercialization?

Anything short of specific, concrete language around FAA testing -- not vague, evasive wording -- could be read as a disappointment, especially since none of the company’s biggest second-quarter announcements moved the needle on Joby stock.

It’s worth noting that Joby reported an earnings beat in Q1 that led to a roughly 21% one-day surge. Shares of Joby were trading at roughly $10.50 the day after reporting first-quarter earnings on May 5, and that winning streak continued until they rose north of $12 at the end of May, after which shares began to slide. The stock currently trades at about $7.50.

Given what investors know going into second-quarter earnings, a meaningful certification or commercialization milestone would be the reason for a surge on the same level as last quarter’s. Without one, however, Joby’s second-quarter report could send the stock into another tailspin.

Steven Porrello has positions in Joby Aviation. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Uber Technologies. The Motley Fool recommends Delta Air Lines. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.