SpaceX Earnings Preview: First Report Set for Release as SPCX Eyes $100 Level

TradingKey - SpaceX is facing an upcoming wave of lock-up expirations; does this mean the SPCX stock price is bound to plunge below the $100 mark?

On August 3, Eastern Time, Elon Musk's space exploration technology company, SpaceX ( SPCX) rebounded slightly in pre-market trading, rising 0.04% to temporarily trade at $108.41, just a step away from the $100 round-number threshold, leaving only about a 7% buffer, with the upcoming lock-up expiration wave weighing on its stock price recovery.

This Thursday (August 6), SpaceX will face its first massive lock-up expiration, which is expected to release over 900 million shares, worth approximately $100 billion, originating from early shareholders, employees, and pre-IPO insiders. Notably, the current free float tradeable in the public market is only about 555 million shares, accounting for less than 5% of the total share capital, while the upcoming lock-up expiration volume is more than 1.6 times the size of the free float, which inevitably raises investor concerns that potential sell-offs will directly impact short-term prices.

Although the SpaceX lock-up expiration is a certainty, the performance of its upcoming inaugural earnings report remains to be seen. If the financial data beats expectations, it could help offset the negative impact of the lock-up expiration, potentially defending the $100 level or even driving a stronger rebound. However, if the earnings performance misses expectations, SpaceX's stock price will face a double whammy, and falling below this threshold will be effortless.

Wall Street expects SpaceX's Q2 revenue to land between $6.82 billion and $6.90 billion, with a GAAP net loss of $2.00 billion to $2.08 billion, and diluted earnings per share (EPS) of approximately $0.20; meanwhile, key focus areas will be Starlink's subscriber count and cash flow, Starship's commercialization progress, and AI capital expenditures (CapEx), among others.

From an optimistic perspective, if Starlink's revenue significantly beats expectations and insiders' willingness to sell upon lock-up expiration is lower than anticipated, SpaceX will defend the $100 mark and quickly launch an oversold rebound to challenge the IPO price of $135. On a more pessimistic note, if the GAAP loss widens and guidance remains conservative, coupled with concentrated, large-scale selling on the lock-up expiration day, SpaceX's stock price will break below the $100 psychological level, falling to seek support in the $85–$90 range, which was a previous intensive private funding transaction zone.

SpaceX stock chart, Source: TradingView