Is This EV Stock The Next Tesla?

When Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN) went public in Nov. 2021, some bullish investors claimed the electric vehicle (EV) maker could become the next Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA). But as of this writing, Rivian's stock trades about 80% below its IPO price. Let's see why Rivian disappointed the market -- and if it still has a shot to become the next Tesla.

Image source: Rivian.

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Why did Rivian's stock crumble?

Rivian initially produced three EVs: the R1T pickup, R1S SUV, and custom electric delivery vans for Amazon and other companies. This March, it launched its cheapest vehicle, the R2 SUV, to expand its addressable market and keep pace with its competitors. However, Rivian's stock plunged because its production slowed down in 2024 and 2025.

Data source: Rivian.

Supply chain constraints, reduced EV subsidies, and intense macro and competitive headwinds caused that slowdown. However, it expects its annual deliveries to rise from 42,247 vehicles in 2025 to 62,000-67,000 vehicles in 2026.

Rivian expects the acceleration to be driven by the R2, which costs less to manufacture than its own vehicles despite its much lower price. As it ramps up production and deliveries of the R2 this year, it will continue to sell its clean energy credits to traditional automakers to stabilize its gross margins and partially offset rising operating expenses.

But Rivian can't be compared to Tesla

Even if Rivian achieves its delivery goals this year, it would only be comparable to Tesla in 2016, when it delivered 76,230 vehicles. Tesla delivered 1.64 million vehicles in 2025.

It could be tough for Rivian to match that growth trajectory for two reasons. First, Tesla was heavily supported by government subsidies, most of which have since been reduced. Second, the EV market is much more crowded than it was ten years ago. That saturation will make it difficult for Rivian to grow large enough for economies of scale to dilute its expenses.

From 2025 to 2028, analysts expect Rivian's revenue to grow at a 43% CAGR as its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) turn positive in the final year. That's a bright outlook for a stock that trades at just three times this year's sales, but that discount reflects a lack of confidence in its ability to expand its business. Rivian is still worth watching as a turnaround play, but I wouldn't call it the "next Tesla" unless the R2 turns as many heads as Tesla's mass-market Model 3 did ten years ago.

Leo Sun has positions in Amazon. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon and Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.