Ford Says It Will Deliver Eyes-Off Driving in 2028. The Market Prices Ford at 9 Times Forward Earnings.

Back in January, at the CES technology show, Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) made one of the most specific promises in the auto industry: eyes-off, hands-free driving, road-ready in 2028. And not reserved for some six-figure priced luxury car. The system is slated for the company's new Universal Electric Vehicle platform, and the platform's first vehicle is a roughly $30,000 electric pickup due in 2027.

Then came Tuesday's second-quarter report, which lifted the company's full-year profit and cash flow guidance.

These are some things to be excited about. Yet what exactly is the market paying for Ford's autonomy program at about 9 times forward earnings? As far as I can tell, almost nothing. And that may be an opportunity.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

The promise, and why it stands out

Automakers talk about autonomy constantly. What made Ford's CES announcement different is the detail attached to it. The company said its BlueCruise system (which today allows hands-free driving on more than 130,000 miles of approved highways, but requires the driver's eyes on the road) will evolve into a Level 3, eyes-off system by 2028. Put simply, the car takes over the driving task in approved conditions, and the driver can look away.

Ford is developing the system in-house and says the new version will be about 30% cheaper to build.

"Autonomy shouldn't be a premium feature," said Doug Field, who was Ford's chief EV, digital, and design officer when he made the announcement.

A dated, mass-market autonomy commitment like this is arguably unique among the legacy automakers.

Of course, it's also just a commitment. Field has since left Ford, departing in the spring as the company folded its EV group into a new product organization. And nothing about a 2028 software milestone is guaranteed. This is, after all, the same company that spent late 2025 canceling large parts of its previous electric vehicle plan.

What the market is paying for it

Tuesday's report showed what a 9-times-earnings price is actually buying. In the second quarter of 2026, Ford's adjusted earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) came in at $2.5 billion, up from $2.1 billion a year earlier, and the margin expanded to 5.2% from 4.3%. Through the first half, adjusted EBIT reached $6.0 billion, nearly double the $3.2 billion Ford earned in the first half of 2025.

Management responded by raising its outlook. It now expects full-year adjusted EBIT of $10 billion to $11 billion, up from a prior range of $8.5 billion to $10.5 billion, and adjusted free cash flow in a range of $6 billion to $7 billion.

The gasoline-and-hybrid business is doing the pulling. Ford Blue earned $1.1 billion in the quarter, up $474 million year over year.

The commercial-focused Ford Pro segment added $1.7 billion, down from a year ago as the company recovers from an aluminum supply disruption. And Ford Credit contributed $757 million of pre-tax earnings, up $112 million.

And the trailing loss that makes Ford look profitless on paper? The quarter's reported bottom line was a $1.3 billion net loss, but that included $4.2 billion of pre-tax special charges, mostly a largely noncash charge tied to exiting a battery joint venture, plus further costs from the electric vehicle program cancellations announced in December. The cash keeps flowing regardless, which is why the $0.60 annual dividend, yielding about 3.9%, remains comfortably covered by management's guidance.

The autonomy program, meanwhile, isn't some separate effort awaiting funding. It's already in the numbers. Ford expects its Model e electric vehicle segment to lose about $4 billion this year, and that guidance includes roughly $1 billion of incremental investment in the Universal Electric Vehicle platform and the company's Ford Energy business. The platform is the same one the 2028 promise rides on. The segment's second-quarter loss of $919 million marked its third straight quarter of year-over-year improvement.

So at about 9 times forward earnings, investors are paying a legacy-automaker price for the trucks, the commercial business, and the dividend, while the autonomy program is treated purely as a cost. If the 2028 date holds and eyes-off driving arrives on Ford's affordable Universal Electric Vehicle platform, that pricing would look like a mistake. Ford would own something no legacy competitor sells at that price point.

I wouldn't buy Ford stock because of a promised software date, and the canceled EV programs show how quickly this company's plans can change. But nobody is being asked to pay for the promise here. For now, I think the stock is a reasonable buy on the business Ford already runs, and I'd watch whether the $30,000 pickup actually arrives in 2027. Whatever autonomy turns out to be worth comes on top.

Daniel Sparks and his clients do not have positions in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.